Another record grain harvest in Russia could lead to monthly deflation and inflation moving closer to 3.6–3.8% at the end of the year, economists interviewed by Izvestia estimated. At the same time, deflation may reach 0.3% in August - for the first time in history. According to agricultural experts, about 120–130 million tons of grain will be harvested in 2017, which is noticeably better than the result of 2016 (121 million tons). Expectations for a high harvest have already led to lower market prices, which will affect inflation in the coming months.

This year's grain harvest may surpass last year's record high. While the Ministry of Agriculture gives modest estimates of 103–105 million tons, experts predict a significantly higher level of grain harvest. President of the National Union of Grain Producers Pavel Skurikhin gave a forecast to Izvestia that the harvest could exceed 120 million tons. Director of the SovEkon analytical center Andrei Sizov believes that the figure will be even higher - 127.6 million tons. According to him, if this level is achieved, this will be an absolute record, exceeding the achievements of 1978, when 127.4 million tons were collected.

Inflation at the end of the year will not go significantly beyond the Central Bank's target of 4%, experts say. The Ministry of Economic Development clarified to Izvestia that the contribution of fluctuations in grain yields to total consumer and investment demand does not exceed 0.1 percentage points. The Bank of Russia reported that they do not see risks of sharp changes in inflation due to the arrival of the grain harvest, and “currently inflation is near the target level.”

Typically, a good harvest has a short-term impact on inflation. Its effect wears off quite quickly, and the rate of price growth stops decreasing. At the same time, monetary policy affects the economy and inflation over a longer horizon. Taking this into account, there will be no need for special measures from the Bank of Russia in response to a good harvest,” a Central Bank representative said.

Agriculture has a significant impact on prices. Since wheat and other grains are socially important raw materials, their high yield can reduce prices for bread, pasta and cereals and affect the overall inflation rate.

We see that grain prices are falling, and falling quite quickly,” Pavel Skurikhin told Izvestia. - Today, of course, we see that the inflation situation on the grain market is reflected in the direction of its decline due to the fact that prices are falling.

At the same time, for agricultural producers, too low prices for products are a risk factor, he added, because farmers need money in order to sow winter crops and prepare for spring sowing.

It is already clear that the harvest will be simply huge. We have several components of this harvest. The main ones are winter crops. They have largely been removed. We also have high yields for spring crops in the European part of Russia,” noted Andrei Sizov.

Macroeconomists' estimates of the scale of the harvest's impact on inflation range from 0.1 to 0.3 percentage points.

Indeed, if the harvest turns out to be better, then we may see quite deep seasonal deflation. In August, deflation of 0.3% is possible, this will be an absolute record, because deflation of 0.3% has never been observed in the history of Russia. If it is 0.3%, this means that we will probably be somewhere around 3.6% year on year in terms of inflation in August,” commented Alexey Devyatov, chief economist at Uralsib Capital Investment Company.

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A decrease in prices as a result of a good grain harvest will likely have a favorable temporary effect on inflation, which, of course, may lead to a deviation of the price index from the Central Bank's target values, agreed Alexander Polyutov, research and analytics manager at Promsvyazbank. At the same time, the expert pointed out, this may be partially compensated by the ambiguous situation with vegetable yields due to cold weather and macroeconomic factors. For example, the transition of Russians from saving to spending.

Stabilization of the situation with real incomes of the population and the expected recovery of consumer activity, as well as a slightly higher ruble exchange rate, may limit the effect of lower grain prices, the expert explained.

08:31 — REGNUM

In 2017, Russia will again receive a record grain harvest. And although in many regions the harvesting campaign has barely exceeded half, problems with its sales and, as a result, low prices, have become very clear. According to the head of the Ministry of Agriculture Alexandra Tkacheva, it is planned to collect at least 110 million tons of grain. But experts are already citing an even higher figure - 140 million. Given the significant drop in exports, there is an opinion that the situation on the grain market will only worsen.

This is especially troubling for the traditional “grain territories” - Siberia And Volga region who are already feeling all the “delights” of the overproduction crisis. For example, in the Altai Territory, where about 3.5 million tons of grain have already been collected, the price of a ton of the most common, third class, dropped significantly - to 7 thousand rubles, (whereas in 2016 they gave 10,500 rubles per ton) and continues to fall. Moreover, as the correspondent was told IA REGNUM one of the farmers, payment for the delivered goods can only be received after 30 days.

Svetlana Shapovalova © IA REGNUM

Meanwhile, the Altai governor Alexander Karlin although he sees the need to launch intervention trading (with this proposal the regional government addressed Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation and p Russian government ), nevertheless believes that Altai farmers do not need to rush to sell grain at an unprofitable price.

"Elevators in the region capable of storing 3.5 million tons of grain per year. In addition, agricultural producers in the region can accommodate 5.7 million tons.” , he said during a press conference the day before.

But, given the prices indicated in the price lists of Altai elevators, farmers are unlikely to be happy about this opportunity: 300 rubles per ton - acceptance, 700 rub. — issue back. In total, 1 thousand rubles per ton will have to be paid to the peasant who, for example, after a month of storage ( and that’s another 115 rubles per ton ) will find a profitable buyer and want to take away the grown crop.

Svetlana Shapovalova © IA REGNUM

Meanwhile, measures to increase the volume of Russian grain exports to international markets are just being taken. And to what extent they will be implemented, no one can say yet. Many farmers have only one hope - intervention. And the Ministry of Agriculture seems to have a different one: to whom and where to sell the harvest of previous years.

Let us remember that the state uses the intervention mechanism to regulate the domestic market. Its purpose is to purchase grain from producers in the fall, after the massive arrival of the crop on the market and a fall in prices, to support them. And in the autumn-spring period - to sell the harvest in order to curb the rise in prices.

In the Altai Territory, grain from the intervention fund (217 thousand tons of wheat) is currently stored by 17 enterprises. B O Elevators in other regions of Russia also accumulated larger volumes of unsold harvest from previous years.

Svetlana Shapovalova © IA REGNUM

Meanwhile, the Altai elevators alone were owed more than 90 million rubles for storing these “bins of the Motherland.” But in general, according to the data United Grain Company, which in this scheme acts as a state agent for managing the grain fund, the state owes the elevators 1.3 billion rubles. Maybe that’s why the Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation is more puzzled sales of harvests from 2008-2013 (!), and believed that interventions were not yet required?

In 2017, Russia broke a record for grain harvest - more than 122.5 million tons have already been threshed. This was stated by the Prime Minister of Russia D Mitry Medvedev at the last government meeting. There was a similar harvest in 1978 - then the figure was 127 million tons, but the area of ​​land under grain crops was then 78 million hectares, and today it is only 47.

— This year's harvest can be called a record one in the history of Russia and the Soviet Union. If we restore this area, we will receive an additional 100 million tons of grain. This is about the potential of the grain market. By 2030, we can receive not 120, but 150 million tons, and exports will not be 40-45, as today, but already 70 million. Such a harvest will fully meet the growing needs for food and feed grain in the domestic market, as well as ensure export supplies,” noted the Minister of Agriculture of the Russian Federation at the meeting Alexander Tkachev.

According to him, there is already a return on the colossal funds that we invest in agriculture. This year it is 242 billion rubles, which are allocated for the implementation of the state program for the development of agriculture.

What problems might arise?

However, a good harvest creates certain problems for farmers. As noted by the owner of the Sverdlovsk chain of private bakeries “On Vishnevoy” Anatoly Pavlov, grain purchases are now at low prices.

The story is very long, and the peasants are in panic. The harvest from the field can be sold for 5,000 rubles per ton; for comparison, in May the cost of grain was 11,500 rubles per ton, however, from the warehouse. At the same time, the cost of materials spent on sowing grain is 4,500 rubles. per ton. Although bakers will benefit - prices for flour also fell by 1,500 rubles in three weeks, but these fluctuations can be attributed to seasonal factors, the indicative month is February, Anatoly Pavlov told OG.

This is due to a fall in grain purchase prices and the loading of elevators, where until recently the harvest of previous years was stored. The situation required the direct intervention of the Russian Government, which allocated subsidies for the transportation of grain from remote areas of Altai and Siberia to the terminals of the Novorossiysk port. Despite the fact that over the past three years, port workers have managed to double the volume of grain transshipment, the capacities are overloaded, and the reserves for increasing volumes are low.

What to do?

The situation in the future may be changed by the construction of the railway part of the Crimean Bridge, the completion of work on which is planned for December 2019. There are three deep-sea terminals in Crimea capable of transshipping grain. Now this infrastructure is not used due to the blockade of Crimea - grain does not arrive from Ukraine. There is also no possibility of transporting grain from Russia.

Secondly, it is necessary to accelerate work on the creation of new wholesale and logistics centers. This will reduce transportation losses, which reach 30 percent. The Ministry of Agriculture plans to build near million-plus cities and large transport and logistics hubs, such as Moscow and the Moscow region, Leningrad region and St. Petersburg, Rostov, Sverdlovsk and others. The centers will be linked into a single network that will allow monitoring and regulating commodity flows between the federal districts of the country. The program started in 2014, and some of the capacities, for example in Primorye, have already been put into operation. However, their number is not enough - this is the only way to explain the proposal of the head of the agro-industrial complex, Alexander Tkachev, about plans to build an additional 36 centers.

And lastly, as Dmitry Medvedev noted, it is necessary to increase the processing of grain into a product with a higher conversion rate.

By and large, we have no other choice. It makes sense to invest part of the funds allocated for grain interventions and subsidies for grain transportation in the creation of a network of factories for deep processing of wheat in Altai, Western and Eastern Siberia. This will make it possible to create a more highly processed product and solve logistics problems. At the same time, added value will remain in the country and new jobs will be created. A similar plant was built in the city of Ishim (Tyumen region). Investments amounted to 5 billion rubles, and the processing capacity is 120 thousand tons of wheat per year. The final products of processing are alcohol, feed and lysine - which will be imported to the countries of the Middle East and Asia (Iran, Iraq, Kazakhstan). The payback period for investments is 7 years.

But there are not enough new deep processing plants, says the director of Finagro Evgeny Shestakov:“This is a very expensive production and there are no analogues to the Ishim lysine plant in the immediate environment. In our region, unfortunately, there are no grain consumers of this level, and we can only count on the Sverdlovsk poultry farm, which purchases part of the grown crop from local producers. This forces grain to be exported to neighboring regions. The strategic mistake is to increase production in the absence of sales markets. One can understand the southern regions of the country, which are capable of exporting large volumes of products, taking advantage of the proximity of the port infrastructure.”

The planned state program for the construction of 100-120 deep processing plants with a capacity of 20 million tons of grain requires about 6 trillion rubles. After the launch of these plants, stable demand for grain in the domestic market will increase. Moreover, each plant, purchasing grain worth 1 billion rubles annually, will be able to produce products worth 5 billion rubles. Only planning the demand for grain through its deep processing can smooth out seasonal price fluctuations and give farmers confidence in the future.

By the way

Despite the worsening weather conditions, field work continues everywhere in the Sverdlovsk region, as stated by the acting director. Minister of Agriculture and Food of the region Dmitry Degtyarev. At the moment, Sverdlovsk farmers have completed the procurement of fodder crops for livestock needs. 31.3 centners of feed per animal were collected, with a plan of 30 centners. Also, 92 percent of the plan was harvested from the fields; the gross grain harvest amounted to 755 thousand tons. More than 90 percent of the plan has been harvested potatoes; 215 thousand tons of tubers have been stored; according to the plan, the harvest is 218 thousand tons. Also, 61 percent of the vegetable harvest was harvested from the region’s fields.

• Published in No. 186 of October 6, 2017

ATTENTION! This is an archived page, current now:

Lunar calendar for the gardener 2017 - Harvesting, salting.

The table of the lunar calendar given on this page is a thematic selection from a universal one made for the convenience of planning work with vegetable crops; work with garden strawberries is given in this section, since we believe that it is more convenient to view them in the “garden” section of the calendar.

September - farewell to summer.

September is harvest time, the month when you need to complete all summer work and gradually begin to prepare the plants for the cold season. In September, all vegetable crops need to be collected from the beds. At the beginning of the month, potatoes should be removed, re-sorted and stored. We collect all the tomatoes in the greenhouse.
September is the month of pickling and canning. After harvesting, the area is cleaned: the tops of root crops are placed in compost pits for fertilizer, but it is better to burn the tops of tomatoes and potatoes. After this, fertilizers are added to the ground and the area is dug up.

ATTENTION! Our gardener's lunar calendar is kept by Moscow time. (The calendar can be used throughout Russia, taking into account the difference between Moscow and local time *)

2017 was quite a difficult year for agricultural producers of the Russian Federation; a state of emergency was introduced in 21 regions of the country. But, despite a complex of unfavorable weather conditions (drought, hail, flood), as well as waterlogging during the harvesting period, it was possible to collect record yields of individual agricultural crops.

This year, a record gross harvest of grains and leguminous crops was obtained - 134.1 million tons in net weight, which is 11.2% more than in 2016 (120.7 million tons) and 35.3% more than the average production for 5 years (average for 5 years (2012-2016) – 98.1 million tons).

For the first time in the history of Russia, 85.8 million tons of wheat were harvested in net weight, which is 17.1% more than in 2016 (73.3 million tons) and 50.4% more than production on average over 5 years (average over 5 years - 56.5 million tons).

At the end of the year, a record amount of buckwheat was harvested - 1.5 million tons (2016 - 1.2 million tons).

Among the achievements of crop production in 2017, it should be noted the production of soybean oilseeds, the gross harvest of which is 3.6 million tons, which is 5 times more than production in 1990, 1.6 times higher than the average for 5 years (2.3 million tons) and 14.1% more than in 2016 (3.1 million tons).

A record gross harvest of rapeseed was collected - 1.5 million tons in net weight, which is 7 times more than production in 1990, 34.9% higher than the average for 5 years (1.1 million tons) and 50.5% more than in 2016 (998.9 thousand tons).

Sunflower was harvested on an area of ​​6.9 million hectares (87.8% of the area), 10.4 million tons were threshed (in 2016 - 11.4 million tons), with a yield of 15.2 c/ha (in 2016 - 15.9 c/ha). The gross harvest in weight after processing is 9.6 million tons. Sunflower harvesting is not yet completed.

The sown area of ​​sugar beets amounted to 1.2 million hectares, 48.2 million tons of test weight were accumulated, with a yield of 430.2 c/ha. This volume will ensure the full utilization of existing processing capacities and produce 6.5 million tons of sugar, or 4.8% more than in 2016 (in 2016 – 6.2 million tons). In 2016, self-sufficiency in sugar reached 94.6%.

According to the agricultural management authorities, the gross potato harvest in all categories of farms amounted to 29.6 million tons. Agricultural organizations and peasant (farm) farms accumulated 6.7 million tons of potatoes (in 2016 – 6.8 million tons), with a yield of 195.9 c/ha (in 2016 – 219.1 c/ha) .

The gross harvest of vegetables in farms of all categories amounted to 16.3 million tons, which is 51 thousand tons higher than last year (16.3 million tons in 2016). Agricultural organizations and peasant farms collected 6.0 million tons of vegetables (2016 – 5.5 million tons).

The gross harvest of fruits and berries amounted to 2.9 million tons, which is 11% lower than in 2016 (in 2016 – 3.3 million tons).

The resulting harvest allows us to meet most of the country’s domestic food needs, increase export potential, and also make a significant contribution to ensuring the country’s food independence and import substitution.

Sowing winter crops. The forecast for sowing winter crops for the 2018 harvest was 17.4 million hectares, which is the same as last year. However, according to operational data from the agricultural management authorities, as of December 25, 2017, 251.8 thousand hectares less winter crops were sown (17.1 million hectares) than on the same date in 2016 (17.3 million hectares). Sowing winter crops was complicated by unfavorable weather and climatic conditions. According to Roshydromet, in a number of regions of the Central, Volga, Northwestern Federal Districts and in the northeast of Western Siberia, conditions for sowing in the second half of August - September were complicated due to frequent rains, and in the extreme southern regions of the Central and South - eastern regions of the Volga Federal District due to moisture deficiency in the soil. In a number of these regions, winter grain crops on 30-50% of the area were sown later than optimal, and in some southwestern regions of the Northwestern Federal District later than extremely late.

According to Roshydromet, as of November 25, 2017, throughout the entire territory of the Russian Federation, winter grain crops are in good and satisfactory condition on an area of ​​16.24 million hectares (95% of the total sown area). The area with poor condition of crops (thinned and non-emergent) is 0.88 million hectares or 5% of the total sown area (0.52 million hectares in 2016, on average for the period 2012-2016 - 1.34 million hectares) .