the main Remote work and freelance Differences of the exchange from forex. Who is available forex. Forex Commodity Markets

Differences of the exchange from forex. Who is available forex. Forex Commodity Markets

In Russia, everyone has heard such a word as Forex, thanks to aggressive advertising of this financial market. Many people begin to open accounts and make speculative transactions with currency, in this particular market. Therefore, in this article, I will try to reveal the basic concepts of the exchange and forex, as well as tell.

And so, what is the exchange and forex market:

1. Exchange is a legal entity, which through its infrastructure organizes trading in financial instruments, and is a centralized platform for various markets under state regulation.
Depending on the trading of various instruments, there are so-called: stock, currency, commodity, futures, options, as well as universal exchangeswhere different financial assets are traded at the same time.
Mostly in Of Russia exchange is called stock exchange (market).

Forex trading Is global over-the-counter market interbank currency exchange at free prices, where there is limited or no government regulation. Forex trading not a centralized site. Transactions are conducted through a system of institutions: central banks, commercial banks, investment banks, brokers and dealers, pension funds, insurance companies, multinational corporations.
Therefore, the expression trade on forex exchange, fundamentally not true.

In Russia there 7 exchanges(licensed bidders):

Moscow Exchange MICEX-RTS OJSC;
-OJSC "St. Petersburg Exchange";
-OJSC Moscow Energy Exchange;
- CJSC "St. Petersburg International - Commodity Exchange";
CJSC St. Petersburg Currency Exchange;
CJSC Exchange St. Petersburg;
CJSC National Commodity Exchange

The largest of them, Moscow Exchange - Russia's largest exchange holding, formed in December 2011 as a result of the merger of exchange groups: MICEX (Moscow Interbank Currency Exchange) and RTS (Russian trading system).

The Moscow Exchange provides stock, bond, derivative, currency, money market and commodity trading services.

Moscow Exchange includes the following trading floors:

Stock market - stocks and bonds are traded.
— Derivatives market — financial instruments, such as futures and stock options, indices, and currency pairs, are traded.
—Currency market — transactions with the foreign currency of the dollar / ruble, euro / dollar, euro / ruble, Chinese yuan / ruble, as well as Belarusian ruble, Ukrainian hryvnia and Kazakh tenge are carried out. Based on the trading platform of the foreign exchange market, gold and silver are also traded.
—Money market — repos are concluded with government securities and money market instruments.

In Russia the Moscow Exchange currency market and the forex (forex) market are different concepts, since Forex is not a stock exchange and is not a stock exchange platform.

In an English-speaking environment, the word Forex usually called currency marketas well as currency trading.
In Russian, the term forex trading usually used in a narrower sense and is meant solely as speculative currency trading through commercial banks or dealing centers.

Forex in Russia:

In Russia, there are currently no laws regulating the forex market. Dealing centers providing currency trading services are mainly registered in offshore zones and semi-legally withdraw money from the population, calling themselves exchange brokers and hiding behind the word forex. There are also brokers who cooperate with such dealing centers, and the latter act on behalf of these brokers and cram their services to a trusting population.

In Russia, dealing centers do not display your transactions on the real interbank forex currency market, that is, on foreign currency trading. They themselves set favorable exchange rates, that is, they trade against you and prevent you from trading for profit. Entering the real forex market can only be provided by a broker with a license. He will work with you for a commission if you have an account of at least several thousand dollars. Therefore, real forex trading in Russia is available to a limited number of individuals. Here you can read an article about the real experience of Forex trading of one of the traders through the dealing center: .

The new law on the regulation of dealer activities in the Forex market.

On October 1, 2015, the law on the regulation of dealer activities in the Forex market entered into force. From October 1, forex dealers will need to obtain a license and join a self-regulatory organization (SRO) until January 1, 2016, the law also limits the amount of leverage provided to an investor (up to 50). Market participants say that this law will not only legalize the market, but also lead to a change in its structure. Wait and see.

Differences of the exchange from forex:

1. The activities of the stock exchange are regulated by law, in contrast to the forex market.
2. Trading on the stock exchange is carried out through an intermediary - broker. In the forex market, trading takes place mainly through dealing centers. If you make transactions with the amount in the range from hundreds to tens of thousands of cu, then you have to deal with the dealing center. Working with a Forex broker will probably be the exception to the rule, since the broker provides access to trading on the "real", "big" forex only with amounts starting from several thousand cu
Dealing centers in the forex market, they make transactions with clients on their own behalf and at their own expense. The work of the dealing center resembles the work of a currency exchange, which, at its discretion, quotes the purchase and sale of currency.
The broker makes transactions on behalf of clients and at the expense of clients, on the basis of a broker service agreement. If you are dealing with a broker, he displays your application on the stock market, where it finds a counter application and is executed. The broker is just an intermediary, he does not set quotes for you and does not trade with you.
3. On the stock exchange, trading takes place between market participants (individuals, legal entities). For transactions, they pay commission to the exchange and broker. In the forex market, trading takes place between the client and the dealing center. In this case, any loss of the client goes to the dealing center, and any customer gain is a loss of the dealing center
4. The most famous Russian brokers are licensed to carry out brokerage activities. Most dealing centers in Russia do not have such a license.
5. In the forex market, there is no exchange glass, there is no data on trading volume and open interest. Unlike the stock exchange, which provides this data.
6. The broker doesn’t care if you earn or lose; for him, a large number of transactions are important. The more transactions are made, the more commission he will receive. The dealing center, on the contrary, is interested in your losses, since the client’s money remains with him.

Findings:

If you decide to seriously engage in trading in financial instruments (stocks, futures, currency) and make speculative transactions, you need to open trading accounts with a broker who, as an intermediary, provides access to trading in legal exchanges ( moscow exchange or foreign exchanges NYSE, NASDAQ, etc.). Currently, Forex trading in Russia is a waste of time and money. Perhaps in the future, something will change.

When traders or analysts use the terms “market”, “market participants”, “market situation”, etc. - Often, this refers not only to Forex, but to all the rest, in the aggregate, global markets for trading or exchanging assets of one type or another. What are the markets?

The oldest type of market is the commodity market, or, as it is also called, the commodity market. Structures, which over time turned into a modern commodity market, arose in Europe at the beginning of the 15th century. As the name implies, the commodity market operates with various industrial and consumer goods. Most of these goods are raw materials of one type or another. However, not all goods can be traded on the global organized commodity market. For access to the market, the product must have a number of mandatory properties. Namely: the standard of consumer qualities (moreover, these standards are fixed), the possibility of sufficiently long storage, ease of transportation, interchangeability (i.e., the uniqueness of goods of the same standard, but of different origin), the possibility of crushing (that is, the formation of batches of goods any volume).

Today, about 100 different types of goods of the following groups are traded on the commodity market;

Hydrocarbons (natural gas, oil, oil products);

Metals, including precious;

Grain (corn, wheat, rye, oats, etc.);

Oilseeds and their processed products;

Meat and cattle;

Food products (cocoa beans, coffee, sugar, potatoes, spices, etc.);

Raw materials for the textile industry (silk, wool, cotton, jute, etc.);

Other types of industrial raw materials.

The main organizational and regulatory centers of the commodity market are commodity exchanges. On exchanges, in addition to direct trading, there are also processes of standardization of goods, pricing, and control over the execution of transactions. Commodity exchanges can be either universal or specialized (i.e., those on which only one particular group or even one type of goods is traded). It is worth noting that trade directly in goods, with their subsequent physical delivery to the buyer, makes up a relatively small part of the total trading volume of the commodity market. The main turnover falls on the share of futures, i.e., standardized contracts for the supply of a certain consignment of goods within the agreed period at a fixed price. Moreover, futures can be resold many times by speculators before the deadline, which entails a constant and sometimes very significant fluctuation in prices.

Since the volume of futures trading is ten times higher than the total volume of spot contracts, a situation often arises when prices for a particular product are formed not by the producers or consumers of this product, but by exchange traders who do not have anything to do with the numbers on their computer screen .

Another type of market is the stock market or, otherwise, the stock market. Although the concepts of “stock”, “futures”, “derivatives” and the like seem very modern - the history of the stock market, however, goes back to the distant XVI century, when the first organizations that we call stock exchanges today arose. At the beginning of its existence, stock exchanges were a physical place where government securities of various European countries were traded. Subsequently, stocks of private companies appeared on the exchanges, and eventually other types of corporate securities. To date, stock exchanges perform several functions: - organize both the initial issue of securities and their subsequent resale; - determine and declare prices for various securities, as well as stock indices (which are derived from the current value of securities of selected issuers); - provide transparency, fair bidding, serve as a guarantor of transactions and arbiter in controversial situations; - establish the rules for the issue and circulation of securities.

There is over-the-counter securities trading, where banks, brokerage houses, and other organizations can act as intermediaries. In addition, buyers and sellers can exchange various types of securities directly. A particularly strong development of the OTC securities market occurred with the advent of electronic trading tools. And today the vast majority of transactions in the stock market do not occur in exchange halls, but in the bowels of computer systems.

In addition to commodity and stock markets, there are several other types of world markets. This, for example, real estate market, insurance market, credit market, etc. What is the place in the community of global markets Forex?

First of all, it is worth noting that the foreign exchange market in terms of turnover exceeds all other markets combined. This happens, in part, because Forex places the least demands on its participants, both financial and professional. That is, in other words, almost any inhabitant of the planet Earth can become an active participant in the foreign exchange market, if desired. But this does not mean at all that Forex is dominant in relation to other markets. On the contrary, the events of other world markets determine the situation in the foreign exchange market. And changes in currency quotes, as a rule, are only a consequence of processes taking place both in the real economy and in various segments of the global financial market.

Today we will talk about Forex commodity markets. Nowadays, the Forex market is weakly reminiscent of a regular exchange office and looks more like a hybrid exchange where both currencies and commodities are traded, as well as shares of large companies. This creates some advantages for novice traders, since there are certain relationships between the commodity market and the foreign exchange market, which can be used to predict further price movements. It is about the relationship of goods with certain currencies that you will learn from this article.

Commodities and US Dollar

Also, goods depend on currencies such as the euro, the yen, the pound and, more recently, the yuan, but the strongest connection is still with the dollar. The increase in the value of the US dollar leads to a drop in prices of commodities, so that pricing comes to a balance.

This correlation is observed on copper, gold, aluminum and so on. Another important tool is the Reuters CRB Index, which provides an assessment of the overall condition of the product market. Using this index, you can determine the condition of the commodity market, and it can be growth, decline or consolidation.

The Reuters CRB Index takes into account 17 commodities, and it is calculated on the basis of prices for goods that are traded on the American stock exchange. In the next picture you can see the correlation between the dollar index and CRB.

Oil trading

Having mastered the basic principles of the product market, I suggest you consider individual assets. I suggest starting with, as it is the main product in the world market. The fact is that it is not only a source of energy, but also an important inflationary component. The latter function is ensured because oil is included in the CPI CPI.

Here the following pattern is observed: an increase in the price of black gold leads to an increase in inflation, which favorably affects the economic condition of the state. But the fall in value leads to the completely opposite outcome, namely, to deflation. How can this information help a trader? The fact is that inflation, together with unemployment and the labor market, are very important economic indicators on which all world markets depend.

The Central Bank carefully monitors inflation and its pace of development, which is provoked by high oil prices. Based on this, a decision is made to tighten monetary policy and increase interest rates. The reduction in inflation leads to a backward reaction of the Central Bank, namely to a decrease in interest rates, which leads to a depreciation of the national currency.

On stock exchanges, an increase in the cost of oil is reflected negatively, as this contributes to a rise in the cost of loans used by companies, which ultimately leads to a reduction in profits. Investors begin to sell shares, which leads to their cheapening. But the fall in the cost of black gold reduces inflation and leads to a rise in the price of stock indices.

As for the relationship between oil and the dollar, there is a mirror correlation, which is also recommended to take into account, understanding the effect of the price of oil on inflation and the dollar on stock prices.

The relationship between oil and interest rates

The Central Bank rate reflects the value of the national currency, while the higher its price, the higher the value of the currency. Investors pay attention to the rates of the Central Bank, as they reflect the value of money. Suppose the interest rate in the USA is 1, and in Europe 0.5, in which case the dollar is more attractive to investors. This will lead to investors starting to buy the dollar, and this in turn will lead to its growth. As a result, the dollar will begin to rise in relation to the euro, and a downtrend will be observed on the euro / dollar pair.

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What does the cost of copper mean?

For some reason, many traders do not pay attention to the cost of copper, although it can predict another growth or decline in the economy. If the cost of copper rises, this indicates an increase in business activity, which leads to the development of the economy and the strengthening of the national currency. Thus, a graph of the cost of copper can be safely used to identify business activity in the world and draw conclusions about the state of the global economy. At the same time, it can be used to evaluate both the global economy and individual countries, which are highly dependent on the cost of copper. This category includes countries such as Australia, as it exports it, and China, which purchases copper in bulk.

In the following picture, you can see the relationship between the value of copper and the Australian dollar.

Please note that there is a fairly strong direct correlation between the two graphs, which can be used for your own purposes. A rise in price of copper leads to an increase in the Australian dollar, and a cheaper price leads to a fall.

The relationship between the Australian dollar and metals

It is believed that the value of gold can be used as an indicator for determining the reversal of the price of the Australian dollar. This is explained by the fact that Australia ranks fourth in the world in terms of gold exports. But if we compare the charts of the Australian dollar, copper and gold, it is not difficult to notice that the connection between them is not as strong as that of the Australian dollar with copper.

They correlate with each other, but the connection with copper is stronger. For this reason, to earn on the Australian dollar it is worth considering the cost of copper and the economic condition of China. Improving the economy in China leads to increased activity in the industry and has a positive effect on the mood of investors investing in the Australian dollar, which contributes to its appreciation.

The relationship between gold and currencies

Gold to this day is considered the main measure for money, since euros and dollars are still paper pieces. One interesting pattern follows from this, which can be seen on the Forex currency market. The fact is that not only the price of gold is affected by the price of the dollar, but also vice versa. That is, as soon as some crises occur, the demand for gold increases, which contributes to the growth of its price. This leads to a drop in the value of the dollar, regardless of the economy of America.

To make money on this pattern, it is recommended to trade at least on daily time frames, since this pattern is not traced on shorter time intervals. We need to find currencies that, with a slight delay, follow the value of gold. Suppose the price of gold broke through the lows and continued to decline, while the price did not fall on the euro / dollar pair, although the dollar was supposed to strengthen its position. In such a situation, you can safely create a sell order, since, most likely, the dollar is simply late with the reaction and sooner or later it will respond to the cheapening of gold.

If you like, press at least one button!

This is not said to beginners and they try not to write in training courses. A trader who knows how to perform, in addition to technical and fundamental, an intermarket analysis, has a much greater chance of profit, and therefore is not profitable for a broker and does not need paid tips and signals. He may well fight on his own in any market conditions.

Each trader comes to understanding the financial market as an interconnected system, but how much time and money it will take depends on individual perseverance and curiosity. Moreover, it is very difficult for a Forex trader who received quick and, as it seems to him, easy profit, to realize the fact that it is the commodity and stock markets that are leading, and the foreign exchange market will always be led.

The idea of \u200b\u200bthe mutual influence of the markets was expressed by the famous Jesse Livermore, but until 1987 attempts to conduct an intermarket analysis were made only by lovers of technical statistics. The simultaneous collapse of the bond market, the boom in the commodity market in the spring of the same year and the subsequent collapse of the stock market in the fall, proved the existence of a tough market link between the bond, stock, commodity markets and the US dollar. It was then that technical analyst John Murphy concluded that the overall dynamics of correlating markets can be used to calculate the behavior of each of them separately.

The theory was confirmed in early 1990, when the American market collapsed, but before that, a similar drop in the Japanese, English and German bond markets occurred. Murphy interpreted this fact as a warning signal about the decline in the stock market, which soon happened: in the first quarter of 1990, the collapse of the Japanese began, and in the summer of the same year the remaining large stock markets.

The main types of financial markets

Modern market analysts distinguish the stock, commodity, foreign exchange markets, the stock market, precious metals and derivatives. The first two have the greatest correlation and practical value for currencies.

Stock market (Stock Market) - carries out trading operations with shares on their initial public offering (IPO) or secondary redistribution through OTC (OTC market). Today, it is stock exchanges that are the leading regulator and indicator of the state of the economy.

The stock market "digests" a huge amount of securities, therefore, intermarket analysis assesses the main trend by leading stock indexes such as Standard & Poor s500, Index, Nasdaq Composite Index, FTSE 100, Nikkei. They are calculated at the price of leading companies (in a certain proportion ) included in the index, therefore, for example, the growth of the DJIA index indirectly indicates the strengthening of the US economy.

Stock indices have a direct impact on the Forex currency market, since to assess their impact on the currency quote it is enough to study the dynamics of two indices (for example, for USD / CHF - DJIA and SMI). The most accurate signals give situations of opposite dynamics, and with the same movement (increase or decrease), assessing the impact on a currency pair is quite difficult.

The use of basic indices for forecasting currency pairs makes sense, at least for medium-term and long-term transactions - the impact of the stock market on the foreign exchange market has some inertia and there is time to conduct a comprehensive assessment. At the same time, the exchange rate reflects the general state of the economy: stable - the currency is growing, bad - is falling. With a stable currency, the inflow of foreign capital to the country is growing, which, among other things, has a favorable effect on the stock market.

Commodity Market (Commodities Market) - historically the primary and largest market: the movement of goods and raw materials, or the so-called "exchange" goods. It is commodity exchanges that set quality standards, model contracts, perform price quotations, and manage disputes. The objects of trade are about 100 types of exchange goods, the main of which are ferrous and non-ferrous metals, soft commodity or “soft goods” (coffee, sugar, wheat, soybeans, grains and basic products), energy sources (oil, natural gas, diesel fuel, gasoline , propane fuel oil), industrial raw materials. Traded through universal (e.g. Chicago Board of Trade, Chicago Mercantile Exchange) or specialized exchanges such as The London Metal Exchange (copper, aluminum, nickel, tin, lead, zinc, silver, plastics), New York coffee, sugar exchange and cocoa, the New York Cotton Exchange.

A comprehensive assessment for is also possible using the dynamics of commodity and stock exchange indices. The CRB commodity futures price index is considered to be the most popular and accurate, however, the commodity prices included in this index react differently to the general economic situation, for example, copper and aluminum are especially sensitive to bond prices, and food products are most dependent from natural factors.

The basic tenets of Murphy's theory

The main principles were stated by the author in the book “Intermarket analysis. The principles of interaction of financial markets ”(it is better to read in the original, since the correctness of Russian translations leaves much to be desired), and the practical application was first described by Rick Bensignor in his“ New Thinking in Technical Analysis ”.

Murphy argues that the nature of the interaction of major markets: foreign exchange, commodity, bonds and stocks determines the accuracy of the price forecast. Further briefly:

the dynamics of the US dollar is the opposite of the movement of commodities (a fall in the dollar leads to an increase, and growth leads to a decrease in prices);
the dynamics of commodities is the opposite of bond prices, but coincides with the direction of movement of interest rates;
bond prices and stock prices, most often, move in the same direction with a certain time gap (bonds reach extremes before stocks, by about 2-3 months);
falling interest rates have a positive effect on the stock market.
dollar growth has a positive effect on American stocks and bonds, and a comprehensive assessment is needed to assess the impact on regional stock markets;
during periods of deflation (which is extremely rare, but is happening now!), bond prices are rising, and stock prices are going down;
no isolated markets: everything is interconnected both nationally and globally.

Financial markets are constantly changing their internal relationships, so it is imperative to monitor mutual dependencies and asset correlation based on the latest market data.

According to the scheme proposed by Murphy, intermarket analysis should start with the current dynamics of interest rates (if any), then go to the market for goods, primarily gold and energy. The main idea of \u200b\u200bthe theory is to see the events in the financial markets the real economy has not yet occurred, and the fundamental processes have already prepared them and are waiting for a signal. In this case, the experienced trader will have time to prepare. Theorists believe that the underlying markets can outstrip economic trends by 5–8 months, especially commodities, which give leading signals about the state of inflation.

There are situations whose dynamics allow us to assess the probability of the direction of movement of several markets: stocks / oil, bond yield / price of goods, commodity price / exchange rate, stock market / bond yield, American / Asian stock market, global inflation / deflation, etc.

The steady growth of the stock market always raises the course of its national currency, that is, it shows a favorable situation for investment, while the fall in stock indices takes currency quotes down.

There are triple witching day and double witching day on the world market, that is, the third Friday of March, June, September and December, when index and commodity options and futures contracts expire at the same time. These days, massive volumes are traded on the market, including stocks, through which large investors perform arbitrage and hedging operations. Speculative volatility ricochets against the foreign exchange market, violating all the laws of technical analysis, and therefore open positions need to be monitored especially carefully.

Next, we consider some trading instruments, without studying the dynamics of which there can be no stable trading on foreign exchange assets, especially commodity ones. Anyone who is lazy to perform such a regular intermarket analysis will sooner or later be punished by the market.

Oil

Oil futures have long been a protective asset against the growth of the dollar and any news from the oil market is actively used by speculators. The decline in the price of base oil brands (Brent and WTI) leads to an increase in the dollar against the euro, especially at times when there is no obvious trend in the market and speculators are waiting for any factor to increase prices and take off quick profits.

The increase in the price of the main energy raw materials causes a negative correlation with the US dollar, while USD / CAD and USD / NOK will actively fall in price. Oil exerts strong pressure on inflation, the dollar index and the Asian group - the yen, Aussi and kiwi. Japan imports from Canada almost all of the oil consumed domestically and a sharp increase in prices leads to a weakening of the yen.

In practice, at times of large sales of US and Canadian oil, there is a huge demand for the Canadian dollar, but in general, the USD / CAD reaction lags behind WTI oil quotes from about 30 minutes to 1 hour, which gives good chances to scalpers. Due to the fact that Canadian oil is actively purchased by China, the Canadian began to actively respond to Chinese statistics.

In today's market, oil is the most liquid, the most “nervous” and the most “political” exchange commodity, which has a direct impact on all economic and financial processes. Timely monitoring of oil price dynamics will be both a chance to earn and insurance against a sharp loss.

Gold

From the point of view of the market, gold always carries a strong psychological burden, if only because most analysts consider it a leading indicator of inflation. A jump or drop in gold prices (in any exchange form!) Invariably falls into the central headlines. The dynamics of the "gold" prices are closely monitored by leading regulators, including the Fed, because it is gold, like a litmus test, that shows how correctly the country conducts its current and long-term monetary policy.

Gold has historically been perceived as a protective asset in situations of economic instability and a guarantee against inflation. The asset is considered difficult to predict in short-term trading, but the dynamics in the medium term and for periods from MN1 and higher are well served by technical analysis. Like all metals, gold reacts quite stably to speculation, which allows it to be able to recognize in its dynamics a leading signal for currency pairs.

Gold has the main suitable for analysis correlations with the American (as a hedge against inflation), Australian and New Zealand dollars. The price of the "gold" futures is always ahead of the movement of Asian currency pairs, that is, for those who can not afford to trade in gold, AUD / USD will be a good substitute.

In addition, large players are actively investing in gold at any moment of market instability. That is why an increase in the price of gold causes such an "illogical" reaction - it lowers the US dollar (if the price of gold rises, then the dollar index falls). The combination of min gold with max dollar exchange rate indicates a possible increase in inflation, the reverse situation - about its slowdown (max gold with min dollar).

From the point of view of analysis, the influence of gold on EUR / USD is complex, this pair is too politicized today. Nevertheless, the whole of last year, despite active Euro speculation, the euro and gold have been moving synchronously, but the euro is slightly late, which often gives a good chance for a short-term entry.

Copper + Silver +Nikkei

Of the raw materials that are of great importance for intermarket analysis, copper should be noted - a strategically important industrial raw material, demand for it grows in situations of expectation of a sharp economic growth or unforeseen situations (military conflicts, natural disasters, industrial disasters). Those who actively trade AUD / USD are well aware of how this pair may collapse in the morning (at the close of Chinese exchanges) by 1-1.5 figures only due to a sharp drop in prices for basic copper futures.

A similar situation is observed for spot silver and the USD / CAD pair, especially during the periods of closing quarterly futures - a slight decrease in the price of silver may cause a strong speculative throw across the Canadian.

Of the indices, the most interesting is the correlation between Nikkei 225 and Asians - Australian and Yen. More or less economically sound speculations are first worked out on this index and only then on currency pairs. Of course, if your own currency foundation does not interfere with such a movement.

And a few more comments in the piggy bank

From the signal of intermarket factors to the reaction of currency pairs, there is always a period of time delay. Sometimes it seems that a particular market does not move at all, but if some basic relationships are not working at the moment, then something non-standard still happens on the market. For example, if commodity prices are practically worth it, but the US dollar is falling, then this could be the likely bearish scenario for bonds and stocks; if basic indices sharply increase (for example, DJ30 index), it means that there is a bulk purchase of shares in 30 leading enterprises, which is clearly favorable for the dollar.

A complete analysis gives the trader important and fresh background information. Sometimes a preliminary study of the dynamics and analytics of related assets before the release of strong news helps to better understand the reaction of the market at the time of publication, not to fall into speculative “gathering stops,” but to enter the market along with major players in the right, fundamentally justified direction.

Long-term position trader intermarket analysis helps to find significant turning points that reflect global trends.

In addition, it is the study of related markets that allows you to timely see the moments of intervention in the market by leading national regulators. The price spikes that we all see in the terminal, as a rule, are only the final series of financial interventions; attempts to stabilize the market by force most often start with funds. Sudden, unsubstantiated movements in stock markets can mean speculative buying up of shares (most often, by private large investment funds or “trusted” banks at the expense of state money) with a distant eye to the “necessary” reaction of the stock and foreign exchange markets.

On Forex, the real volume of transactions is not visible, but it is quite possible to get real volume from the largest exchanges (for example, CME) for similar currency futures. Of course, on Forex the total volume is 8-10 times higher than the futures, but the dynamics of the currency futures is identical to the currency pair, because such futures are a derivative of the base currency. Just the regulatory impact of the currency futures makes currency pairs keep their prices in a narrow, almost the same range.

Currency futures analysis includes data on volume and open interest - these are the main confirming factors in the market, because volume precedes setting a fair price. It is worthwhile once again to make sure that there is a large volume in the direction of the leading trend: a consistent increase in open interest shows that the trend is supported by new money, a decrease - most often means a gradual weakening of the trend.

And in conclusion ...

Of course, we do not forget about the random factor of the market price. With the introduction of electronic commerce, a huge mass of unskilled players, armed with initial technical knowledge, have entered the world market. This causes an accumulation of trading volumes at mathematically predicted points, leads to bursts of speculative volatility and a violation of theoretical pricing models. New technologies, ambiguity and rapid variability further complicate decision making.

Today, inter-market analysis is applied with equal degree of success in any financial market, as an addition to the usual scheme of technical analysis - this allows you to take into account external factors, the alignment of market forces and correctly assess medium and long term prospects. Of course, relying only on intermarket valuations is not worth it, but this is your spare rearview mirror, which you must definitely look into for safe trading.