home Investment Determination of the components of the risk matrix by the method of expert evaluation. Expert methods for assessing investment risks. Analysis of external risk at the research and production enterprise "Samara Horizons"

Determination of the components of the risk matrix by the method of expert evaluation. Expert methods for assessing investment risks. Analysis of external risk at the research and production enterprise "Samara Horizons"

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Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation

Federal State Budgetary Educational Institution of Higher Professional Education

"St. Petersburg Polytechnic University of Peter the Great - a structural subdivision of the Institute of Trade and Economics University"

(FGAOU VO "SPbPU - TEU")

Faculty of Trade and Consumer Products Expertise

Abstract on the discipline: "Risk Management"

On the topic: "Method of expert risk assessments"

The work was done by a student

4 courses, groups 47035/3

Record book number: 13687 - TD

Kuznetsov I.A.

Checked:

Scientific adviser Goncharov G.A.

Saint Petersburg 2016

- Introduction

Introduction

Risk is inherent in any field economic activity. The problem of risk is of particular importance in entrepreneurship, where intensive changes in the environment of a business entity necessitate a prompt and energetic response to the transformations that come in business. At the same time, it is necessary to take into account the industry specifics that determine the risk factors, the degree of their manifestation and significance.

The lack of evidence-based approaches to the analysis and risk assessment of research and production enterprises leads to such undesirable consequences as loss of profits, unsold stocks of goods, reduced investment efficiency, the occurrence of losses in transactions, a reduction in the resource base, etc.

However, despite significant amount risk analysis research and active search ways of an objective assessment of the magnitude of risk, many methodological and methodological issues of this important problem have not yet been resolved. So, in particular, so far there is no consensus on the nature and content of the economic risk of enterprises, criteria and indicators (general and private) for assessing economic risk have not been substantiated, there is no evidence-based classification of factors that determine economic risks, in particular external risks. risks of the enterprise in market conditions of functioning.

The need to improve the risk assessment of an enterprise and, in particular, a research and production enterprise in market conditions predetermined the relevance of the research topic.

1. Risk zones and risk curve

An entrepreneur should always strive to take into account the possible risk and provide for measures to reduce its level and compensate for probable losses. This is the essence of risk management (risk management). The main goal of risk management (especially for conditions modern Russia) - to ensure that in the worst case it could be a lack of profit, but not the bankruptcy of the organization. To assess the degree of acceptability of commercial risk, it is necessary to allocate risk zones depending on the expected amount of losses. The general scheme of risk zones is shown in fig. one.

Figure 1. Risk zones.

The area in which losses are not expected, i.e. where the economic result economic activity positive is called the risk-free zone. The acceptable risk zone is the area within which the amount of probable losses does not exceed the expected profit and, therefore, commercial activity has economic viability. The boundary of the acceptable risk zone corresponds to the level of losses equal to the calculated profit. The critical risk zone is the area of possible losses that exceed the amount of expected profit up to the value of the total estimated revenue (the sum of costs and profits). Here, the entrepreneur runs the risk of not only not receiving any income, but also incurring direct losses in the amount of all costs incurred.

Catastrophic risk zone - the area of probable losses that exceed the critical level and can reach a value equal to equity organizations. A catastrophic risk can lead an organization or entrepreneur to collapse and bankruptcy. In addition, the category of catastrophic risk (regardless of the amount of property damage) should include the risk associated with a threat to life or health of people and the occurrence of economic disasters. A visual representation of the level of commercial risk gives a graphical representation of the dependence of the probability of losses on their magnitude - the risk curve (Fig. 2).

Figure 2. Risk curve.

The construction of such a curve is based on the hypothesis that profit as a random variable is subject to the normal distribution law and involves the following assumptions.

1. Most likely to receive a profit equal to the calculated value - Pr. The probability (Вр) of obtaining such a profit is maximum and the value of P can be considered the mathematical expectation of profit. The probability of making a profit, greater or less than the calculated one, decreases monotonically as deviations increase.

2. Losses are considered to be a decrease in profit (DP) in comparison with the calculated value. If real profit is equal to P, then DP = Pr - P.

The assumptions made are controversial to a certain extent and not always valid for all types of risks, but on the whole quite correctly reflect the most general patterns of changes in commercial risk and make it possible to construct a profit loss probability distribution curve, which is called the risk curve (Fig. 3).

Figure 3. Profit Loss Probability Distribution Curve

The main thing in assessing commercial risk is the ability to build a risk curve and determine zones and indicators of acceptable, critical and catastrophic risks. Thus, the risk analysis process includes the following stages:

* creation of predictive model;

* definition of risk variables;

* determination of the probability distribution of selected variables and determination of the range of possible values for each of them;

* establishing the presence or absence of correlations among risk variables;

* runs of models;

* analysis of the results.

risk variables. These are variables that are critical to the viability of the project, i.e. even small deviations from its expected value negatively affect the project. Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis is used to select variables. Sensitivity analysis measures the response of project results to changes in a particular project variable.

Uncertainty analysis helps to highlight high-risk variables. The set of expected values of the variable should be wide enough, but with boundaries: minimum and maximum values. Thus, a range of possible values is set for each risk variable. Two main categories of probability distribution can be distinguished: 1) normal, uniform and triangular distributions (they spread the probability within the same range, but with different degrees of concentration relative to the average values). These types of distribution are called symmetric; 2) stepwise and discrete distributions. With a discrete distribution, range intervals are allocated, each of which is assigned a certain probability weight in a stepwise manner (Fig. 4).

Figure 4. Probability distribution.

correlated variables. Determination of risk variables and giving them an appropriate probability distribution is a necessary condition for risk analysis. Upon successful completion of these two stages of analysis, with a reliable computer program you can go to the modeling stage. At this stage, the computer generates a series of scenarios based on random numbers generated using specified probability distributions.

To analyze the available data, regression and correlation are usually used to make it easier to predict the dependent variable from the actual or hypothetical values of the independent variable. As a result of such analyzes, a regression equation and a correlation coefficient are derived. For risk analysis, this is just the input data, and the result is the information generated during the simulation. The task of correlation analysis in relation to risk analysis is to control the values of the dependent variable, allowing you to maintain correspondence with the opposite values of the independent variable.

Currently, the following methods of risk analysis are the most common: financial profit management

* statistical;

* expert assessments;

* analytical;

* combined method.

2. Method of expert assessments

This method involves the collection and study of assessments made by various experts (of the enterprise or external experts) regarding the probability of occurrence of various levels of losses. Estimates are based on taking into account all financial risk factors, as well as on statistical data. The implementation of the method of expert assessments is much more complicated if the number of assessment indicators is small.

The variant and probable nature of many project processes enhances the role of expert judgment in determining the economic and financial indicators. Such estimates are used quite regularly both in domestic and foreign practice. During the transition period, the role expert opinions when determining the relevant indicators, it increases significantly, since the indicators used for the calculation are not directive. Appropriate expert assessment can be obtained both after conducting special studies and using the accumulated experience of leading experts. The increase in risk in the implementation of the project requires a more thorough assessment of the critical moments of its implementation. Many initial indicators, often competing with each other, involve the use of expert assessments to construct a project quality criterion. Therefore, the system for evaluating investments in modern conditions by necessity it becomes “human-algorithmic”, and the role of the human expert is decisive. Expert assessment is the opinion of experts on a specific issue identified by a special method. An expert assessment is necessary for making a decision at the stage of preparation of the PTES. But already in the feasibility study, the number of expert assessments should be minimal. Staged risk assessment is based on the fact that the risks are determined for each stage of the project separately, and then the total result for the entire project is found. Usually, in each project, the following stages are distinguished: preparatory (fulfillment of the entire range of works necessary to start the project); construction (construction of necessary buildings and structures, purchase and installation of equipment); functioning (bringing the project to full capacity and making a profit). The nature of the investment project as something done on an individual basis essentially leaves the only possibility for assessing the values of risks - the use of expert opinions. Each expert, working separately, is presented with a list of primary risks for all stages of the project and is invited to assess the likelihood of risks occurring in accordance with the following rating system:

0 - the risk is considered as insignificant;

25 - the risk is most likely not realized;

50 - nothing definite can be said about the occurrence of the event;

75 - the risk is most likely to occur;

100 - the risk is realized.

Expert evaluations are subjected to consistency analysis, which is performed according to certain rules. Firstly, the maximum allowable difference between the estimates of two experts for any factor should not exceed 50. Comparisons are made modulo (plus or minus sign is not taken into account), which allows eliminating unacceptable differences in experts' estimates of the likelihood of a particular risk. If the number of experts is more than three, then pairwise comparable opinions are evaluated. Secondly, to assess the consistency of expert opinions on the entire set of risks, a pair of experts is identified whose opinions differ most. For calculations, the assessment discrepancies are summed modulo and the result is divided by the number of simple risks. The quotient of division should not exceed 25. If contradictions are found between the opinions of experts (at least one of the above rules is not followed), they are discussed at meetings with experts. In the absence of contradictions, all expert estimates are reduced to the average (arithmetic mean), which is used in further calculations. A separate problem is the justification and evaluation of priorities. Its essence lies in the need to free experts who assess the probability of risk from assessing the importance of each individual event for the entire project. This work should be carried out by the project developers, namely the team that prepares the list of risks to be assessed. The task of the experts is to give an assessment of the risks. After determining the probabilities for simple risks (obtaining an average expert assessment), it is necessary to obtain an integral risk assessment of the entire project. To do this, the risks of each sub-stage or composition of the stages are first calculated: functioning, financial and economic, technological, social and environmental. Then the risks of each stage are calculated - preparatory, construction, functioning.

Another important method of risk research is modeling the choice problem using a "decision tree". This method involves the graphical construction of decision options that can be taken. The branches of the "tree" correlate subjective and objective assessments of possible events. Following along the constructed branches and using special methods for calculating probabilities, each path is evaluated and then the less risky one is chosen.

Conclusion

In general, the use of the expert method of risk assessment makes it possible to visually trace the influence of individual initial factors on the final result of the project, identify the most significant risk factors at the preliminary stage, and take actions to minimize them.

Risk should be understood as a consequence of an action or inaction, as a result of which there is a real possibility of obtaining uncertain results of a different nature, both positively and negatively affecting the financial and economic activities of the enterprise. Most researchers note that enterprises should not avoid risk at the decision-making stage, but should be able to competently and professionally manage it. For this, a risk analysis is carried out.

Currently, the following methods of risk analysis are the most common:

* statistical;

* expert assessments;

* analytical;

* assessment of financial stability and solvency;

* assessing the feasibility of costs;

* analysis of the consequences of risk accumulation;

* method of using analogues;

* combined method.

The peer review method differs in the way information is collected to build the risk curve. This method involves the collection and study of estimates made by various experts (in the enterprise or external experts) regarding the probability of occurrence of various levels of losses. Estimates are based on taking into account all financial risk factors, as well as on statistical data.

Bibliography

1. Algin A.P. Risk and its role in public life. -- M.: Thought, 2004.

2. Algin A.M. Facets of economic risk. -- M.: Knowledge, 2005.

3. Balabanov I. T. Risk management. -- M.: Finance and statistics, 2006.

4. Blank I.A. Investment management: Training course. - K .: Elga-N, Nika-Center, 2005.

5. Grabovy P.G., Petrova S.I. Risks in modern business. - M.: ALANS, 2004.

6. Granaturov V. M. Economic risk. Essence, methods of measurement, ways of reduction. Business and Service, 2005.

7. Granaturov V.M. economic risk. -- M.: Business and service, 2008.

8. Degtyareva O.I., Kandinskaya O.A. Exchange business. -- M.: UNITI, 2009.

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1. Risk analysis and assessment

The problem of analysis, assessment and risk management in the implementation of production activities by enterprises is today one of the central problems in the Russian economy. In a planned economy, when unprofitable enterprises received subsidies through the redistribution of funds from profitable enterprises, these problems were not so urgent. Currently, if the company does not make a profit, and even more so if there is no return on investment, then the company is on the verge of bankruptcy. So rational use funds and taking into account the risk factor is the most important moment in the activity of the enterprise.
In the conditions of the formation of market relations, the role and importance of individual elements of the management process has changed radically, therefore, the theoretical approaches to their analysis, evaluation and organization at the enterprise are also changing.
The number of unresolved problems in the field of managing economic and industrial risks at industrial enterprises has increased markedly at the present time with the advent of a competitive environment.
At the same time, it is important to take into account that any of the objects and subjects of production activity is exposed to the systemic impact of risks of various hierarchical levels: geopolitical, political, social, economic, financial, industrial, commercial, and man-made.
The risk can be reduced, first of all, by careful preliminary study, calculation of operations, choice of a rational, less dangerous course of action. Proper accounting of risk factors and rational risk management in the enterprise contributes to its success. market activity, while other enterprises, whose management does not pay due attention to risks, in a similar market situation, inevitably turn out to be unprofitable. Therefore, the issues of theory and practice of risk assessment and management have acquired particular relevance at the present time.
The purpose of risk analysis is to provide potential partners with the necessary data to make decisions about the appropriateness of participating in the project and provide for measures to protect against possible financial losses. Risk analysis is performed in the sequence shown in fig. one.

Figure 1. Sequence of risk analysis.

General principles of risk analysis. When talking about the need to take into account risk in project management, they usually mean its main participants: the customer, investor, performer (contractor) or seller, buyer, and also the insurance company. When analyzing the risk of any of the project participants, the following criteria are used, proposed by the famous American expert B. Berlimer:
risk losses are independent of each other;
loss in one direction from the “risk portfolio” does not necessarily increase the probability of loss in another (except for force majeure circumstances);
the maximum possible damage should not exceed the financial capabilities of the participant.
Risk analysis can be divided into two complementary types: qualitative and quantitative. Qualitative analysis can be relatively simple, its main task is to determine the risk factors, the stages of work during which the risk arises, i.e., to establish potential areas of risk, and then identify all possible risks. Quantitative risk analysis, i.e., the numerical determination of the size of individual risks and the risk of the project as a whole, is a more complex problem. All factors, one way or another affecting the growth of the degree of risk in the project, can be conditionally divided into objective and subjective.

1.1. Risk zones and risk curve

An entrepreneur should always strive to take into account the possible risk and provide for measures to reduce its level and compensate for probable losses. This is the essence of risk management (risk management). The main goal of risk management (especially for the conditions of modern Russia) is to ensure that in the worst case we can talk about the lack of profit, but not about the bankruptcy of the organization. To assess the degree of acceptability of commercial risk, it is necessary to allocate risk zones depending on the expected amount of losses. The general scheme of risk zones is shown in fig. 2.

Figure 2. Risk zones.

The area in which losses are not expected, i.e., where the economic result of economic activity is positive, is called the risk-free zone. The zone of acceptable risk is the area within which the amount of probable losses does not exceed the expected profit and, therefore, commercial activity has economic feasibility. The boundary of the acceptable risk zone corresponds to the level of losses equal to the calculated profit. Critical risk zone - the area of possible losses exceeding the amount of expected profit up to the value of the total estimated revenue (the sum of costs and profit). Here, the entrepreneur runs the risk of not only not receiving any income, but also incurring direct losses in the amount of all costs incurred.
A catastrophic risk zone is an area of probable losses that exceed the critical level and can reach a value equal to the organization's own capital. A catastrophic risk can lead an organization or entrepreneur to collapse and bankruptcy. In addition, the category of catastrophic risk (regardless of the amount of property damage) should include the risk associated with a threat to life or health of people and the occurrence of economic disasters. A visual representation of the level of commercial risk is given by a graphical representation of the dependence of the probability of losses on their magnitude - the risk curve (Fig. 3).

Figure 3. Risk curve.

The construction of such a curve is based on the hypothesis that profit as a random variable is subject to the normal distribution law and involves the following assumptions.
1. Most likely to receive a profit equal to the calculated value - Pr. The probability (Вр) of obtaining such a profit is maximum and the value of P can be considered the mathematical expectation of profit. The probability of making a profit, greater or less than the calculated one, decreases monotonically as deviations increase.
2. Losses are considered to be a decrease in profit (?P) in comparison with the calculated value. If real profit is equal to P, then? P \u003d Pr - P.
The assumptions made are controversial to a certain extent and not always valid for all types of risks, but on the whole they quite correctly reflect the most general patterns of changes in commercial risk and make it possible to construct a profit loss probability distribution curve, which is called the risk curve (Fig. 4).

Figure 4. Profit loss probability distribution curve.

The main thing in assessing commercial risk is the ability to build a risk curve and determine zones and indicators of acceptable, critical and catastrophic risks. Thus, the risk analysis process includes the following stages:
creation of a predictive model;
definition of risk variables;
determining the probability distribution of the selected variables and determining the range of possible values for each of them;
establishing the presence or absence of correlations among risk variables;
model runs;
analysis of results.
risk variables. These are variables that are critical to the viability of the project, i.e. even small deviations from its expected value negatively affect the project. Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis is used to select variables. Sensitivity analysis measures the response of project results to changes in a particular project variable.
Uncertainty analysis helps to highlight high-risk variables. The set of expected values of the variable should be wide enough, but with boundaries: minimum and maximum values. Thus, a range of possible values is set for each risk variable. Two main categories of probability distribution can be distinguished: 1) normal, uniform and triangular distributions (they spread the probability within the same range, but with different degrees of concentration relative to the average values). These types of distribution are called symmetric; 2) stepwise and discrete distributions. With a discrete distribution, range intervals are allocated, each of which is assigned a certain probability weight in a stepwise manner (Fig. 5).

Figure 5. Probability distribution.

correlated variables. Determination of risk variables and giving them an appropriate probability distribution is a necessary condition for risk analysis. With the successful completion of these two stages of analysis, with a reliable computer program, you can proceed to the modeling stage. At this stage, the computer generates a series of scenarios based on random numbers generated using specified probability distributions.
To analyze the available data, regression and correlation are usually used to make it easier to predict the dependent variable from the actual or hypothetical values of the independent variable. As a result of such analyzes, a regression equation and a correlation coefficient are derived. For risk analysis, this is just the initial data, and the result is the information generated during the simulation. The task of correlation analysis in relation to risk analysis is to control the values of the dependent variable, allowing you to maintain correspondence with the opposite values of the independent variable.
Currently the most common are following methods risk analysis:
statistical;
expert assessments;
analytical;
assessment of financial stability and solvency;
cost feasibility assessments;
analysis of the consequences of risk accumulation;
method of using analogues;
combined method.

1.2. Methods of expert assessments

In an unstable environment, when it is practically impossible for an entrepreneur to repeat the economic situation under the same conditions and there is no information about the possibility of risk events, it is possible to use subjective methods of expert assessments, judgments and personal experience an expert, the opinion of a financial manager, etc.
Expert assessment methods allow you to determine the levels of financial risks in the event that the enterprise does not have the necessary information for making calculations or comparisons. These methods are based on a survey of experts (qualified specialists from insurance, tax, financial authorities, investment managers, employees of relevant specialized firms) with subsequent statistical processing of the survey results. The survey should focus on certain types risks identified in this operation.
Expert risk assessment is not a decision, but only useful information to help you make an informed decision. Only the risk manager can decide on the level of risk based on his preferences, and he is responsible for them.
Expert evaluation methods are widely used in determining the levels of inflationary, interest rate, emission, currency, investment and some other types of financial risks.
This method involves the collection and study of assessments made by various experts (of the enterprise or external experts) regarding the probability of occurrence of various levels of losses. Estimates are based on taking into account all financial risk factors, as well as on statistical data. The implementation of the method of expert assessments is much more complicated if the number of assessment indicators is small.
The variant and probable nature of many project processes enhances the role of expert judgment in determining economic and financial performance. Such estimates are used quite regularly both in domestic and foreign practice. During the transition period, the role of expert opinions in determining the relevant indicators increases significantly, since the indicators used for calculation are not directive. Appropriate expert assessment can be obtained both after conducting special studies and using the accumulated experience of leading experts. The increase in risk in the implementation of the project requires a more thorough assessment of the critical moments of its implementation. Many initial indicators, often competing with each other, involve the use of expert assessments to construct a project quality criterion. Therefore, the investment assessment system in modern conditions, by necessity, becomes “human-algorithmic”, and the role of a human expert is decisive.
Expert assessment is the opinion of experts on a specific issue identified by a special methodology. An expert assessment is necessary for making a decision at the stage of preparation of the PTES. But already in the feasibility study, the number of expert assessments should be minimal. Staged risk assessment is based on the fact that the risks are determined for each stage of the project separately, and then the total result for the entire project is found. Usually, in each project, the following stages are distinguished: preparatory (fulfillment of the entire range of works necessary to start the project); construction (construction of necessary buildings and structures, purchase and installation of equipment); functioning (bringing the project to full capacity and making a profit). The nature of an investment project as something done on an individual basis essentially leaves the only possibility for assessing risk values - the use of expert opinions. Each expert, working separately, is presented with a list of primary risks for all stages of the project and is invited to assess the likelihood of risks occurring in accordance with the following rating system:
0 - the risk is considered insignificant;
25 - the risk is most likely not realized;
50 - nothing definite about the occurrence of the event
cannot be said;
75 - the risk is most likely to manifest itself;
100 - the risk is realized.
Expert evaluations are subjected to consistency analysis, which is performed according to certain rules. Firstly, the maximum allowable difference between the estimates of two experts for any factor should not exceed 50. Comparisons are made modulo (plus or minus sign is not taken into account), which allows eliminating unacceptable differences in experts' estimates of the likelihood of a particular risk. If the number of experts is more than three, then pairwise comparable opinions are evaluated. Secondly, to assess the consistency of expert opinions on the entire set of risks, a pair of experts is identified whose opinions differ most. For calculations, the assessment discrepancies are summed modulo and the result is divided by the number of simple risks. The quotient of division should not exceed 25. If contradictions are found between the opinions of experts (at least one of the above rules is not followed), they are discussed at meetings with experts. In the absence of contradictions, all expert estimates are reduced to the average (arithmetic mean), which is used in further calculations.
A separate problem is the justification and evaluation of priorities. Its essence lies in the need to free experts who assess the probability of risk from assessing the importance of each individual event for the entire project. This work should be carried out by the project developers, namely the team that prepares the list of risks to be assessed. The task of the experts is to give an assessment of the risks. After determining the probabilities for simple risks (obtaining an average expert assessment), it is necessary to obtain an integral risk assessment of the entire project. To do this, the risks of each sub-stage or composition of the stages are first calculated: functioning, financial and economic, technological, social and environmental. Then the risks of each stage are calculated - preparatory, construction, functioning.
Another important method of risk research is modeling the choice problem using a "decision tree". This method involves the graphical construction of decision options that can be taken. The branches of the "tree" correlate subjective and objective assessments of possible events. Following along the constructed branches and using special methods for calculating probabilities, each path is evaluated and then the less risky one is chosen.
There are no ready-made recipes in risk management and there cannot be. But knowing his methods, techniques, ways of solving certain economic problems, one can achieve tangible success in a particular situation.
A manager's intuition and insight play a special role in solving risky tasks. Intuition is the ability to directly, as if suddenly, without logical thinking, to find the right decision Problems. Intuition is an indispensable component of the creative process. Insight is the consciousness of solving a specific problem. At the moment of insight, the decision is clearly perceived, but this clarity is often of a short duration. Therefore, a conscious fixation of the decision is necessary.
In cases where the risk cannot be calculated, risky decisions are made using heuristics, which is a set of logical techniques and methodological rules for theoretical research and the search for truth. In other words, these are ways of solving particularly complex problems. Risk management has its own system of heuristic rules and techniques for making decisions under risk (Fig. 6).

Figure 6. Heuristic rules for making a risky decision.

2. Risk management
In a market economy, producers, sellers, buyers act independently in a competitive environment, that is, at their own peril and risk. Their financial future is therefore unpredictable and little predictable. Risk management is a system for assessing risk, managing risk and financial relationships that arise in the course of a business. The risk can be managed using a variety of measures that make it possible to predict the occurrence of a risk event to a certain extent and take timely measures to reduce the degree of risk.
The degree and magnitude of risk can really be influenced through the financial mechanism, which is carried out using the methods of strategy and financial management. This kind of risk management mechanism is risk management. Risk management is based on the organization of work to determine and reduce the degree of risk.
Risk management is a system for managing risk and economic (more precisely, financial) relations that arise in the process of this management, and includes the strategy and tactics of management actions.
Management strategy refers to the directions and methods of using funds to achieve the goal. Each method corresponds to a certain set of rules and restrictions for adoption. best solution. The strategy helps to concentrate efforts on various solutions that do not contradict the general line of the strategy and discard all other options. After reaching the target this strategy ceases to exist, as new goals put forward the task of developing a new strategy.
Tactics - practical methods and techniques of management to achieve a set goal in specific conditions. The task of management tactics is to choose the most optimal solution and the most constructive management methods and techniques in a given economic situation.
Risk management as a management system consists of two subsystems: the managed subsystem - the object of management and the management subsystem - the subject of management. The object of management in risk management is risky investments of capital and economic relations between business entities in the process of risk realization. Such economic relations include relations between the insured and the insurer, the borrower and the lender, between entrepreneurs, competitors, etc.
The subject of management in risk management is a group of managers (financial manager, insurance specialist, etc.), which, through various options for its impact, performs the purposeful functioning of the management object. This process can be carried out only if the necessary information is circulated between the subject and the object of management. The management process always involves the receipt, transfer, processing and practical use of information. The acquisition of information that is reliable and sufficient under specific conditions plays a major role, as it helps to make the right decision on actions in a risk environment. Information support consists of various kinds of information: statistical, economic, commercial, financial, etc.
This information includes information about the probability of a particular insured event, event, the presence and magnitude of demand for goods, capital, financial stability and solvency of its customers, partners, competitors, etc.
An economic entity must be able not only to collect information, but to store and retrieve it if necessary. The best card file for collecting information is a computer that has both a good memory and the ability to quickly find the information you need.
There are the following functions of risk management:
- the management object, which includes the risk resolution organization; risk capital investments; work to reduce the magnitude of the risk; risk insurance process; economic relations and links between the subjects of the economic process.
- the subject of management, within which forecasting, organization, coordination, regulation, stimulation, control.
Before deciding on a risky capital investment, the financial manager must determine the maximum amount of loss for this risk; compare it with the amount of invested capital; compare it with all your own financial resources and determine whether the loss of this capital will lead to the bankruptcy of the investor. The amount of loss from capital investment can be equal to the amount of this capital, be less than it or more.
The organization of risk management involves the definition of a risk management body, which can be a financial manager, a risk manager or an appropriate management apparatus, say, a risk capital investment department, which should perform the following functions:
- carry out venture and portfolio investments, that is, risky investments in accordance with the current legislation and the charter of an economic entity;
- develop a program of risky investment activities;
- collect, analyze, process and store information about the environment;
- determine the degree and cost of risks, strategy and management techniques;
- develop a program of risky decisions and organize its implementation, including monitoring and analysis of results;
- carry out insurance activities, conclude insurance and reinsurance contracts, conduct insurance and reinsurance operations;
- develop conditions for insurance and reinsurance, set tariff rates for insurance operations;
- issue a guarantee on the guarantee of domestic and foreign companies, make compensation for losses at their expense, entrust other persons with the performance of similar functions abroad;
- maintain appropriate accounting, statistical and operational reporting on risky capital investments.
Risk management strategy is the art of risk management in an uncertain economic situation, based on risk prediction and risk reduction techniques. This strategy includes the rules on the basis of which risky decisions are made and ways to choose their option.
The following rules apply in the risk management strategy:
- maximum win
- the optimal probability of the result,
- optimal variability of the result,
- the optimal combination of gain and risk.
The essence of the maximum payoff rule is that from options risky investments of capital, the option is chosen that gives the greatest efficiency of the result at a minimum or acceptable risk for the investor.
The desire for the optimal combination of the size of the gain and the amount of risk lies in the fact that the manager evaluates the expected values of the gain and risk and decides to invest in the event that allows you to get the expected gain and at the same time avoid high risk. The decision-making rules for risky investment of capital are supplemented by various ways of choosing a solution option. Among the latest choices:
- a solution, provided that the probabilities of possible economic situations are known;
- a solution option, provided that the probabilities of possible economic situations are unknown, but there are estimates of their relative values,
- a solution option, provided that the probabilities of possible economic situations are unknown, but the main directions for evaluating the results of capital investment are known.
In the first case, the average expected value of the rate of return on invested capital for each option is determined and the option with the highest rate of return is selected. In the second, by means of an expert assessment, the value of the probability of the conditions of economic situations is established and the average expected value of the rate of return on invested capital is calculated. In the third case, there are three directions for evaluating the results of capital investment: choosing the maximum result from the minimum value; selection of the minimum risk value from the maximum risks; the choice of the average value of the result. The calculation for risk assessment and the choice of the optimal investment option is made using mathematical methods that are studied by such disciplines as econometrics, financial management, and economic analysis.
The central place in the assessment of entrepreneurial risk is occupied by the analysis and forecasting of possible losses of resources in the course of entrepreneurial activity. This does not mean the expenditure of resources, objectively determined by the nature and scale of entrepreneurial actions, but random, unforeseen, but potentially possible losses arising from the deviation of the real course of entrepreneurship from the planned scenario.
If a random event has a double impact on the final results of entrepreneurship, has unfavorable and favorable effects, then when assessing risk should be equally taken into account those and others. In other words, when determining the total possible losses, the gain that accompanies them should be subtracted from the calculated losses.
It is advisable to divide the losses that may be in entrepreneurial activity into material, labor, financial, time losses, and special types of losses. Material losses are manifested in an additional cost or direct losses of equipment, property, products, raw materials, energy, etc. With respect to each individual of the listed losses, their units are used. It is most natural to measure material losses in the same units in which the quantity of a given type is measured. material resources, i.e. in physical units of weight, volume, area, etc.
However, it is not possible to bring together the losses measured in different units and express them in one value. You can not add kilograms and meters. Therefore, the calculation of losses in value terms, in monetary units, is inevitable. For this, the physical dimension loss is translated into the value measurement by multiplying the price of the unit of the corresponding material resource. For material resources, the cost of which is known, the losses can immediately be assessed in monetary terms. Having an assessment of the likely losses for each of the individual types of material resources in value terms, to actually reduce them together, while observing the rules of action with random values and their probabilities.
Labor losses represent the loss of working time caused by random, unforeseen circumstances. In direct measurement, labor losses are expressed in man-hours, man-days, or simply hours of working time. Translation of labor losses in value, monetary expression is carried out by multiplying labor for the cost (price) of one hour.
Financial loss is a direct monetary loss associated with unforeseen payments, payment of fines, payment of additional taxes, loss of funds and valuable papers. In addition, financial losses can be with the shortage or non-receipt of money from the provided sources, during non-return of debts, unpaid the buyer of products supplied to it, a decrease in revenue due to lower prices for sold products and services. Special species monetary damage associated with inflation, changes in the exchange rate of the ruble, additional
etc.................

V thesis risk assessment of Tekhnologii LLC is carried out with the help of experts. This method is used when there is insufficient data on the object of study. The role of expert assessments is to obtain an independent subjective opinion of each expert specialist on issues of issues and the generalization of these opinions to obtain an objective assessment of the analysis object.

To conduct the study, we selected experts: employees of the enterprise, since they have been working at the enterprise for a long time and are quite competent in the current situation of the enterprise, the opportunities and threats that the enterprise promises external environment. In total, 10 people played as experts. In this case, the leaders acted as experts structural divisions Technologies LLC.

An assessment of the risks of the analyzed enterprise is invited to implement the formula:

where Kp - the level of risk of the enterprise;

i - 1,2,.. n - number of experts;

j - 1,2,..7 - the number of estimated parameters;

aj - weight of the j-th parameter;

Bij - I-M assessment an expert of the j-th parameter on the five-point system;

5n is the maximum possible number of points that the assessed enterprise can receive.

Installed following conditions Assessments by experts of the risk of enterprise:

- no quality - 1 point;
- quality appears very rarely - 2 points;
- quality manifests itself not strongly and not weak - 3 points;
- quality appears often - 4 points;
- Quality manifests itself systematically, stable, clearly - 5 points.

Thus, it becomes possible to High Share objectivity to assess risk parameters and make informed management decisions on this basis.

The greater the value of the weighted amount of estimates, the higher the likelihood of risk.

The results are presented in Table 6.

Table 6

Expert assessment of the risk level of Tekhnologii LLC in the main areas of analysis

Possible risks

The weight of the indicator

Expert assessments

1. The emergence of technological raw materials restrictions

2. Unsatisfactory staff management

3. Reduced market demand, underestimation of the influence of competitors

4. Cost inflation

5. Fors major, material damage

As a result, we got the level of the analyzed risk parameters of the enterprise Кр = 0.674 or 67.4% of the maximum value of 100%. This means medium risk.

At the same time, in the five areas of possible risks for the enterprise under study: the emergence of technological resource restrictions, poor personnel management, a decrease in demand, underestimation of the influence of competitors, cost inflation, force majeure, material damage, estimates were obtained that differ significantly from each other. friend.

Data for analysis are presented in Table 7.

Table 7

Probability of risk occurrence

As can be seen from the data of Table 7, the greatest probability of the risk of experts is estimated in terms of work with personnel and on market parameters.

Further, in areas with a high probability of risk, we will conduct more in-depth studies. For market aspects related to the evaluation of a business portfolio, it is advisable to use the BCG model in the structure portfolio analysis. To develop a management decision on personnel, a personnel survey was conducted, and the main problems in this area were identified.

The concept of risk

Definition 1

Risk is a cost expression of a probabilistic event that can lead to losses.

The greater the chance of obtaining high profits, the higher the risk levels. Risks are formed in the case when these valid and estimates do not coincide with each other and can carry both positive and negative character. Making a profit is possible only if possible losses are foreseen and insured.

Risk functions

There are several risk functions. These include:

Innovative, stimulating the search for non-traditional solutions to problems. Innovation is conducted by an enterprise to competitiveness and rapid growth;
Regulatory function, acting as a constructive or destructive, and aimed at obtaining results;
Protective expressing in a tolerant attitude towards failures when aware that the risk is an integral part of any production;
Analytical - a function that assumes the choice of one single correct solution from a set.

Remark 1

It should be noted that, despite the threats that risk carries, it is an integral part of making a profit. In this regard, the main task of the managers is not a complete rejection of risks, but a choice of solutions related to the determination of possible development of risky situations.

Risk assessment

The set of analytical enterprises that make it possible to forecast the possibility of obtaining additional income, or to determine the amount of damage from a situation that has arisen, is a risk assessment. Risk assessment is carried out on the basis of qualitative quantitative analyses. They are carried out on the basis of an assessment of the influence of external and internal factors. Such an analysis is a rather time-consuming procedure, but it always bears fruit if it is carried out qualitatively.

If possible losses can be estimated and predicted in one way or another, then a quantitative assessment has been obtained. Speaking that the risk is measured by the magnitude of the loss, their chance should be taken into account. To obtain data on the likelihood of a risky situation, an objective analysis is used.

Any type of risk has a mathematically expressed probability of the situation occurring. It is based on statistical data and can be calculated to a reasonable degree of accuracy. All possible consequences of any single risk must be known in order to calculate the quantitative consequences.

Expert risk assessment

Definition 2

An expert assessment is an opinion of experts on a given issue, performed according to a specially developed methodology.

Expert risk assessment involves the collection and study of various assessments made by the company's specialists or external experts, and regarding the likelihood of certain losses. Such estimates should be based on taking into account all economic criteria and on statistical data. With a small number of indicators, the implementation of the method of expert assessments looks difficult.

The role of the method of expert assessments is increasing due to the variability of the influence of many economic processes. At certain stages, the role of such a method increases, at others it decreases many times over. An expert assessment can be obtained only in the case of a special study, as well as using the experience of other specialists in the field. In view of the many indicators that are often mutually exclusive, the method of expert assessments is used to construct quality criteria. The role of a person of an expert, in this method, is determining.

Expert risk analysis is used at the initial stages of working with a project if the amount of initial information is insufficient to quantify the effectiveness (the error of the results exceeds 30%) and project risks.

The advantages of expert risk analysis are: no need for accurate initial data and expensive software tools, the ability to evaluate before calculating the effectiveness of the project, as well as the simplicity of calculations. The main disadvantages include: the difficulty in attracting independent experts and the subjectivity of assessments.

Experts attracted to risk assessment should:

- have access to all information about the project available to the developer;
- have a sufficient level of creativity of thinking;
- have the necessary level of knowledge in the relevant subject area;
- To be free from personal preferences regarding the project.

The expert method of risk assessment is based on the generalization of the thoughts of experienced entrepreneurs and specialists. At the same time, experts should supplement their own estimates with data on the probability of different sizes of losses.

The essence of this method is as follows:

All are revealed possible reasons(sources) appearances investment risk;
All identified causes are ranked according to the degree of significance (influence on investment risk), and for each of them a certain score and a weighting factor in fractions of a unit are set;
A generalized risk assessment is determined by multiplying the value of each cause in points by a weighting factor and summing them according to the formula

where P and- generalized risk assessment;

d i- weighty coefficient of each reason of investment risk;

Z i- the absolute value of each cause in points.

Usually, the absolute value in points ranges from 1 to 10 or from 1 to 100, but most often from 1 to 10.

As the value approaches P and By one, the value of investment risk is reduced and vice versa.

The expert risk analysis algorithm has the following sequence:

1) for each type of risk, the maximum level acceptable for the organization implementing this project is determined. The limited risk level is determined by 100 score;
2) if necessary, a differentiated assessment of the level of expertise of experts is established, which is confidential. The score is given on a 10-point scale;
3) risks are assessed by experts in terms of the likelihood of a risk event (in fractions of a unit) and the danger of these risks for the successful completion of the project (on a 100-point scale);
4) estimates put down by experts for each type of risk are summarized by the project developer in tables. They define the integral level for each type of risks.
5) The integral risk level is compared as a result of an expert survey, and the limited level for this type of risk and is made a decision on the admissibility of this type of risk for the project developer. In the event that the received limit level of one or more risks are lower than the integral values obtained, a set of measures aimed at reducing the influence of the revealed risks to the success of the project is developed, and re-analyzes risks.

The expert risk assessment method consists of the stages of stages.

Table 2.1 - The content of the stages of expert assessment of investment risks

	Risk assessment stage
	Folding an exhaustive list of simple risks	Specialists make up an exhaustive list of simple risks of the project for each of its stages.
	Expert assessment of risk probability	Independent experts determine the likelihood of simple project risks. Experts work independently. The system for assessing the probability of simple risks should be the same for all experts
	Analysis of expert assessments	Defines contradictions in expert estimates. Expert assessments are being coordinated at a meeting of experts
	Associations of expert opinions	The arithmetic mean estimate of the probability of simple risks is calculated
	Integral assessment of the risk of an investment project	Specialists define priority groups of simple risks. The calculation of the weight value of simple risks that are included in the priority groups is carried out

Stage 1. At the first stage, an exhaustive list of risks is formed. Such a list should be compiled by relevant specialists - builders, technologists, economists, lawyers who are involved in the development, operation of the project, and have relevant experience with similar projects. It is advisable to group the exhaustive list into thematic groups - technological risks, financial and economic, socio-political, commercial and the like.

Stage 2. Each expert who works separately is provided with an exhaustive list of simple risks in all stages of projects, and it is proposed to evaluate them, guided by such a rating system:

0 - the risk is considered insignificant;
25 - the risk is most likely not realized;
50 - nothing definite can be said about the onset of the event;
75 - the risk is likely to manifest itself;
100 - risk confidence is high.

Stage 3. Contradictions in the assessments of experts are determined. For this, the following rules apply.

1. The maximum allowable difference in marks between two experts should not exceed 50:

2. Allows you to find a pair of experts whose thoughts have the greatest divergence:

where a i , b i- Evaluation i- th simple risk by experts a and b, respectively; N- the number of simple risks.

In the event that there will be detected contradictions between the thoughts of experts, that is, at least one of the rules are not fulfilled, they are discussed and coordinated at the open meeting of experts.

Stage 4. Individual ratings experts are brought together. Against each, reduced in a single, expert assessment of the likelihood of simple risks, should be affected by its weight importance, which gives imagination about the importance of each evaluated event for the project as a whole. This work must be carried out by project developers, that is, those who are preparing an exhaustive list of risks.

Stage 5. Determined integral assessment Risk of projects. Such an assessment, in turn, is conducted in two stages:

- an assessment is determined for each of the stages of the investment project, having previously calculated the risks for individual substages;
- a risk assessment for the entire project is determined.

It is also possible to combine statistical and expert methods, that is, you can use the combined risk assessment method.

Determination of the components of the risk matrix by the method of expert evaluation. Expert methods for assessing investment risks. Analysis of external risk at the research and production enterprise "Samara Horizons"

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Introduction

The need to improve the risk assessment of an enterprise and, in particular, a research and production enterprise in market conditions predetermined the relevance of the research topic.

1. Risk zones and risk curve

Figure 1. Risk zones.

Figure 2. Risk curve.

The construction of such a curve is based on the hypothesis that profit as a random variable is subject to the normal distribution law and involves the following assumptions.

2. Losses are considered to be a decrease in profit (DP) in comparison with the calculated value. If real profit is equal to P, then DP = Pr - P.

Figure 3. Profit Loss Probability Distribution Curve

The main thing in assessing commercial risk is the ability to build a risk curve and determine zones and indicators of acceptable, critical and catastrophic risks. Thus, the risk analysis process includes the following stages:

* creation of predictive model;

* definition of risk variables;

* determination of the probability distribution of selected variables and determination of the range of possible values ​​for each of them;

* establishing the presence or absence of correlations among risk variables;

* runs of models;

* analysis of the results.

Figure 4. Probability distribution.

Currently, the following methods of risk analysis are the most common: financial profit management

* statistical;

* expert assessments;

* analytical;

* combined method.

2. Method of expert assessments

0 - the risk is considered as insignificant;

25 - the risk is most likely not realized;

50 - nothing definite can be said about the occurrence of the event;

75 - the risk is most likely to occur;

100 - the risk is realized.

Conclusion

In general, the use of the expert method of risk assessment makes it possible to visually trace the influence of individual initial factors on the final result of the project, identify the most significant risk factors at the preliminary stage, and take actions to minimize them.

Currently, the following methods of risk analysis are the most common:

* statistical;

* expert assessments;

* analytical;

* assessment of financial stability and solvency;

* assessing the feasibility of costs;

* analysis of the consequences of risk accumulation;

* method of using analogues;

* combined method.

Bibliography

1. Algin A.P. Risk and its role in public life. -- M.: Thought, 2004.

2. Algin A.M. Facets of economic risk. -- M.: Knowledge, 2005.

3. Balabanov I. T. Risk management. -- M.: Finance and statistics, 2006.

4. Blank I.A. Investment management: Training course. - K .: Elga-N, Nika-Center, 2005.

5. Grabovy P.G., Petrova S.I. Risks in modern business. - M.: ALANS, 2004.

6. Granaturov V. M. Economic risk. Essence, methods of measurement, ways of reduction. Business and Service, 2005.

7. Granaturov V.M. economic risk. -- M.: Business and service, 2008.

8. Degtyareva O.I., Kandinskaya O.A. Exchange business. -- M.: UNITI, 2009.

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