the main Partnership programs Long-term budget forecast of the municipality. On approval of the procedure for the development and approval of the budget forecasting of the municipality "Inzen district" for the long term. Scenic conditions of the budget forecast

Long-term budget forecast of the municipality. On approval of the procedure for the development and approval of the budget forecasting of the municipality "Inzen district" for the long term. Scenic conditions of the budget forecast

Administration of the municipality "Inzen district" Ulyanovsk region

Decision

On approval of the procedure for the development and approval of the budget forecasting of the municipality "Inzen district" for the long term

In accordance with Part 4 of Article 170.1 of the Budget Code of the Russian Federation, decree:

1. To approve the procedure for the development and approval of the budget forecast municipal Education "Inzen district" on long-term period According to the annex to this Regulation.

2. The decision comes into force on January 1, 2017 and is subject to the placement on the official website of the administration of the municipality "Inzensky district".

3. Control over the execution of this Resolution Leaves.

First Deputy
Chapters of the district administration
M.S.Kreeva

Application. The procedure for the development and approval of the budget forecast of the municipality "Inzen district" for the long term

application
to the decree
administration MO "Inzen district"
dated December 28, 2016 N 877

This procedure establishes the mechanism of development and approval, the period of action, as well as the requirements for the composition and content of the budget forecasting of the Municipal Education "Inzen district" for the long term (hereinafter referred to as the budget forecast).

1. General Provisions

1. The budget forecast is developed in order to determine financial resourceswhich are necessary and can be aimed at achieving the objectives formulated in the documents of the strategic planning of the municipal formation "Inzen district" (hereinafter referred to as the MO "Inzen district"), subject to ensuring long-term balance and sustainability budget system MO "Inzen district" and improving the effectiveness of budget expenditures.

2. The budget forecast is developed in accordance with the Budget Code of the Russian Federation, the charter of the municipality "Inzen district" of the Ulyanovsk region, on the basis of the forecast of socio-economic development MO "Inzen district" for the long-term period, taking into account the budget forecast of the Ulyanovsk region for the long-term period, social strategy -Economic development of the Ulyanovsk region and the strategy of socio-economic development MO "Inzensky district".

3. For the purposes of this Procedure under the period of forecasting, the term for which the budget forecast is formed.

2. Requirements for the composition and content of the budget forecast

1. The budget forecast includes the main parameters of the budget MO "Inzen district" (hereinafter - parameters).

2. The parameters approved by the budget forecast contain the indicators of income, costs, deficit (surplus) of the budget MO "Inzen district".

The forecast of the basic parameters is compiled in the form established by this Procedure (Table 1 of the annex to this order).

The parameters indicate the projected volume of municipal debt MO "Inzen district" and the expected amount of expenses for its maintenance.

3. Information on maximum volumes financial support Sales municipal programs The MO "Inzen district" for the period of their action is reflected in the form established by this Procedure (Table 2 of the annex to this order).

3. Development of a budget forecast, its approval and actualization

1. The development of a budget forecast is carried out by the Office of Finance of the Municipal Education "Inzen district" (hereinafter referred to - Finance Management).

2. The prediction period of the budget forecast cannot be less than 6 years and must correspond to the period on which the forecast of socio-economic development MO "Inzen district" is formed for the long term.

The budget forecast for the long-term period is developed every three years for six or more years on the basis of the forecast of the socio-economic development of the municipality "Inzen district" for the corresponding period.

The budget forecast is subject to annual change, taking into account changes in the forecast of socio-economic development MO "Inzen district" for the long-term period and the decision of the Council of Municipal Education Council "Inzensky district" on the budget of the MO "Inzen district" for the next fiscal year (planned period) without extending the period His actions.

The budget forecast is developed every three years with the simultaneous extension of the prediction period.

3. In order to form a budget forecast project (project of budget forecasting) for the next prediction period by October 1, the management of industry development, agriculture and the entrepreneurship of the administration of the Municipal Education "Inzensky district" submits to the Office of Finance Project of the forecast of socio-economic development MO "Inzen district" for the long term.

4. Finance management requests the necessary to develop and form a budget forecast project (budget change project) information from organs local governments Municipality "Inzensky district".

5. The draft budget forecast (draft change of the budget forecast) for the long-term period (with the exception of financial security indicators of municipal programs) is submitted to the administration of the Inzen District Municipality (hereinafter - the administration) as part of documents and materials submitted simultaneously with the budget project Inzensky district "For the next fiscal year (planned period), in accordance with the established procedure and term.

6. After the decision of the Council of Deputies of the Municipal Education "Inzensky district" on the budget of the MO "Inzensky district" for the next fiscal year (planned period), finance management prepares and makes a draft decree of the Administration on the approval of the budget forecast (changes in the budget forecast) on time not exceeding one month from the date of the official publication of the decision of the Council of Deputies of the Municipal Education "Inzensky district" on the budget of the MO "Inzen district" for the next fiscal year (planned period).

7. Approval of the budget forecast (a change in the budget forecast) is carried out by the Administration within a period not exceeding two months from the date of the official publication of the decision of the Council of Municipal Education Council "Inzensky district" on the Budget MO "Inzensky district" for the next fiscal year (planned period).

application

to order
development and approval of the budget forecast
municipal Education "Inzen district"
for a long term

Table 1. Forecast of the main parameters of the budget of the municipality "Inzen district"

Table 1

Forecast of the main parameters of the budget of the municipality "Inzen district"

thousand rubles


Indicator	Year of the prediction period




Deficiency / surplus
Budget of the municipality "Inzen district"


including the cost of servicing municipal debt
Deficiency / surplus
Municipal debt for the first January of the next year

Table 2. Limit volumes of financial support for the implementation of municipalities of the municipal formation "Inzen district"

table 2

Limit volumes of financial support for the implementation of municipal national education programs "Inzensky district"

thousand rubles


Name	Year of the prediction period

Expenses for the implementation of municipal programs MO "Inzensky district" total, of them:
including
Municipal program "Management of municipal finances of the municipality" Inzen district "for 2015 - 2019"
Municipal program "Development of a road management system in the municipal formation" Inzen district "for 2015 - 2017"
Municipal program of the municipal formation "Inzensky district" "Increasing the effectiveness of the management of municipal property of the municipality" Inzen district "for 2016 - 2020"
Municipal program "Promoting the development of civil society institutions and support for socially oriented non-Profit Organizations and volunteer (volunteer) activity in Inzensky district "for 2015-2019
Municipal program "Informatization of the municipality" Inzen district "for 2016 - 2018"
Municipal program "Ensuring the rule of law and safety of vital activity on the territory of the Inzen district of the Ulyanovsk region on 2016 - 2020 "
Municipal program "Sustainable development of rural territories of Inzen district of the Ulyanovsk region for 2016 - 2020 "
Municipal program "Formation of a favorable investment climate in the municipality" Inzen district "Ulyanovsk region for 2015 - 2019"
Municipal Program "Development and Modernization of Education in Inzensky district in 2014 - 2018"
Municipal program "Development of youth policy in the Inzensky district of the Ulyanovsk region for 2015 - 2018"
Municipal program "Development of culture in the territory of the municipality" Inzen district "for 2015 - 2019."
Municipal program " Social support and defense some categories population in the Inzen district of the Ulyanovsk region for 2015 - 2017 "
Municipal program "Development of physical culture and sports in Inzensky district for 2015 - 2018"
Municipal program "Development of the municipal service in the municipality" Inzen district "for 2015 - 2018"
Municipal program "Protection ambient and restoration of natural resources in Inzen district for 2015 - 2017 "
Municipal program "Providing housing of young families for 2016 - 2020 in the territory of the municipality" Inzen district "of the Ulyanovsk region
Municipal program "Development of agriculture and regulation of markets of agricultural products, raw materials and food in the municipal formation" Inzen district "of the Ulyanovsk region for 2016 - 2020"

Notes:

N - the first year of the forecasting period;

i - last year Prediction period.

Government of the Russian Federation

Decision

On the budget forecastRussian Federation For a long term

In accordance with Article 170.1 of the Budget Code of the Russian Federation, the Government of the Russian Federation decides:

Chairman of the government
Russian Federation
D.Medvedev

Approved
Decree of Government
Russian Federation
from August 31, 2015 N 914

rules

Development and approval of the budget forecast of the Russian Federation for the long term

These rules determine the procedure, deadlines and conditions of development and approval, as well as the requirements for the composition and content of the budget forecast of the Russian Federation for the long term (hereinafter referred to as the budget forecast).
Under the change of the budget forecast, the adjustments made without a change in the period, which is developed by the budget forecast.
The development of a budget forecast (changes in the budget forecast), including the methodological and organizational provision, is carried out by the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation.
The budget forecast (changes in the budget forecast) is approved by the order of the Government of the Russian Federation.
Development of a budget forecast (changes in the budget forecast) is carried out in 3 stages.
At the first stage, a draft budget forecast is being developed (changes in the budget forecast) on the basis of scenario conditions for the functioning of the economy of the Russian Federation for the long-term period and the main parameters of the forecast of the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for the long-term period.

Individual indicators of scenario conditions for the functioning of the economy of the Russian Federation for the long-term period and the main parameters of the forecast of the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for the long term, as well as other indicators of the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation necessary to develop a budget forecasting project (changes in the budget forecast), are submitted by the Ministry Economic Development of the Russian Federation to the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation no later than on May 15 of this year.

Separate indicators of the budgets of the budget system of the Russian Federation can be developed for a period greater than the period of budget development, based on individual indicators of the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation, developed by the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation for the 50th period.

The draft budget forecast (changes in the budget forecast) is taken into account when developing the forecast of the basic characteristics of the budget system budgets for the next fiscal year and planning period.

The project of the budget forecast (changes in the budget forecast) is submitted to the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation for accounting in the development of the forecast of the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for the long-term period, as well as indicators of the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for the long-term period.

At the second stage, a budget forecast (changes in the budget forecast) is developed on the basis of the project for the forecast of the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for the long-term period, other indicators of the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for the long-term period submitted by the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation to the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation no later than August 25 of this year.

The budget forecast (budget forecast changes) is sent by the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation to coordinate to the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation no later than September 5th of this year.

The budget forecast (budget forecast changes) is made by the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation to the Government of the Russian Federation as part of documents and materials for the project federal Law About the federal budget for the next fiscal year and planning period (except for financial support indicators state programs Russian Federation).

At the third stage, a draft disposal of the Government of the Russian Federation on the approval of the budget forecast (changes of the budget forecast) is being developed, taking into account the results of the consideration of the draft federal law on the federal budget for the next fiscal year and the planning period.

The draft decree of the Government of the Russian Federation on the approval of the budget forecast (changes in the budget forecast) is submitted by the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation for approvaling to the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation 2 weeks prior to the submission of the specified project of the order to the Government of the Russian Federation.

The draft disposal of the Government of the Russian Federation on the approval of the budget forecast (changes in the budget forecast) is made by the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation to the Government of the Russian Federation within a period not exceeding 1 month from the date of the official publication of the Federal Law on the Federal Budget for the next fiscal year and the planning period.

The budget forecast (budget prognosis changes) is developed taking into account 3 options for the forecast of the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for the long-term period (basic, conservative and target) and other indicators of the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for the long-term period.

application
to the rules of development and approval

Requirements for the composition and content of the budget forecast of the Russian Federation for the long term

The budget forecast of the Russian Federation for the long-term period (hereinafter - the budget forecast) includes the following sections:

a) the main results of the development of the budget system of the Russian Federation;

b) current state budget system of the Russian Federation;

c) approaches and methodology for developing a budget forecast;

d) the forecast of the main characteristics and other indicators of budgets of the budget system of the Russian Federation for the long-term period (taking into account the provisions of the legislation of the Russian Federation acting on the day of the budget forecasting);

e) the structure of expenses and income budgets of the budget system of the Russian Federation;

e) state and municipal debt;

g) risks and threats of imbalance budgets of the budget system of the Russian Federation, including, taking into account various options for the forecast of the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for the long-term period and other indicators of the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation;

h) the main approaches, goals and objectives of the formation and implementation of budget, tax and debt policies in the long term;

and) mechanisms for the prevention risks of the implementation of the budget forecast;

k) Approaches to forecasting and indicators of financial support of state programs of the Russian Federation for the period of their action.

Budget prognosis contains:

a) the forecast of the characteristics of the budgets of the budget system of the Russian Federation in the form according to;

b) forecast of the main indicators federal budget in the form according;

c) indicators of financial support of state programs of the Russian Federation for the period of their action in the form according to.

Appendix N 1.
to the requirements for composition and content
budget forecast of the Russian Federation
For a long term
(the form)

FORECAST

characteristics of the budgets of the budget system of the Russian Federation

(billion rubles)

Indicator	Reporting year	This year	Another year (N)	N + 3.	N + 4.	...
I. Basic option

Revenues

Costs
In percentage of gross domestic product
Deficit (surplus)
In percentage of gross domestic product
2. FEDERAL BUDGET
Revenues - just
In percentage of gross domestic product
of them:
Oil and gas revenues
In percentage of gross domestic product
nonnephnegas revenues
In percentage of gross domestic product
Costs - just
In percentage of gross domestic product

In percentage of gross domestic product
including:

In percentage of gross domestic product

In percentage of gross domestic product

In percentage of gross domestic product

In percentage of gross domestic product
Deficit (surplus)
In percentage of gross domestic product

Revenues - just
In percentage of gross domestic product
Of these, intergovernmental transfers - total
In percentage of gross domestic product

In percentage of gross domestic product
Costs - just
In percentage of gross domestic product
Of these, intergovernmental transfers - total
In percentage of gross domestic product
including:
Pension Fund of the Russian Federation
In percentage of gross domestic product
Federal Medical Insurance Fund
In percentage of gross domestic product
Fund social insurance Russian Federation
In percentage of gross domestic product
federal budget
In percentage of gross domestic product
Deficit (surplus)
In percentage of gross domestic product

Revenues - just
In percentage of gross domestic product
Of these, intergovernmental transfers - total
In percentage of gross domestic product
including from the federal budget
In percentage of gross domestic product
Costs
In percentage of gross domestic product
Deficit (surplus)
In percentage of gross domestic product

Revenues - just
In percentage of gross domestic product
Of these, intergovernmental transfers - total
In percentage of gross domestic product
including from the federal budget
In percentage of gross domestic product
Costs
In percentage of gross domestic product
Deficit (surplus)
In percentage of gross domestic product

Revenues - just
In percentage of gross domestic product
Of these, intergovernmental transfers - total
In percentage of gross domestic product
including from the federal budget
In percentage of gross domestic product
Costs - just
In percentage of gross domestic product

In percentage of gross domestic product
Deficit (surplus)
In percentage of gross domestic product

Revenues
In percentage of gross domestic product
Costs
In percentage of gross domestic product
Deficit (surplus)
In percentage of gross domestic product
II. Conservative option
1. Budgets of the budget system of the Russian Federation
Revenues
In percentage of gross domestic product
Costs
In percentage of gross domestic product
Deficit (surplus)
In percentage of gross domestic product
2. FEDERAL BUDGET
Revenues - just
In percentage of gross domestic product
of them:
Oil and gas revenues
In percentage of gross domestic product
nonnephnegas revenues
In percentage of gross domestic product
Costs - just
In percentage of gross domestic product
Of these, intergovernmental transfers - total
In percentage of gross domestic product
including:
budgets of subjects of the Russian Federation
In percentage of gross domestic product
Pension Fund of the Russian Federation
In percentage of gross domestic product
Social Insurance Fund of the Russian Federation
In percentage of gross domestic product
Federal Medical Insurance Fund
In percentage of gross domestic product
Deficit (surplus)
In percentage of gross domestic product
3. Consolidated budgets of constituent entities of the Russian Federation
Revenues - just
In percentage of gross domestic product
Of these, intergovernmental transfers - total
In percentage of gross domestic product
including from the federal budget
In percentage of gross domestic product
Costs - just
In percentage of gross domestic product
Of these, intergovernmental transfers - total
In percentage of gross domestic product
including:
Pension Fund of the Russian Federation
In percentage of gross domestic product
Federal Medical Insurance Fund
In percentage of gross domestic product
Social Insurance Fund of the Russian Federation
In percentage of gross domestic product
federal budget
In percentage of gross domestic product
Deficit (surplus)
In percentage of gross domestic product
4. Pension Fund Russian Federation
Revenues - just
In percentage of gross domestic product
Of these, intergovernmental transfers - total
In percentage of gross domestic product
including from the federal budget
In percentage of gross domestic product
Costs
In percentage of gross domestic product
Deficit (surplus)
In percentage of gross domestic product
5. Social Insurance Fund of the Russian Federation
Revenues - just
In percentage of gross domestic product
Of these, intergovernmental transfers - total
In percentage of gross domestic product
including from the federal budget
In percentage of gross domestic product
Costs
In percentage of gross domestic product
Deficit (surplus)
In percentage of gross domestic product
6. Federal Mandatory Medical Insurance Fund
Revenues - just
In percentage of gross domestic product
Of these, intergovernmental transfers - total
In percentage of gross domestic product
including from the federal budget
In percentage of gross domestic product
Costs - just
In percentage of gross domestic product
Including intergovernmental transfers with territorial compulsory health insurance funds
In percentage of gross domestic product
Deficit (surplus)
In percentage of gross domestic product
7. Territorial Mandatory Medical Insurance Funds
Revenues
In percentage of gross domestic product
Costs
In percentage of gross domestic product
Deficit (surplus)
In percentage of gross domestic product
III. Target
1. Budgets of the budget system of the Russian Federation
Revenues
In percentage of gross domestic product
Costs
In percentage of gross domestic product
Deficit (surplus)
In percentage of gross domestic product
2. FEDERAL BUDGET
Revenues - just
In percentage of gross domestic product
of them:
Oil and gas revenues
In percentage of gross domestic product
nonnephnegas revenues
In percentage of gross domestic product
Costs - just
In percentage of gross domestic product
Of these, intergovernmental transfers - total
In percentage of gross domestic product
including:
budgets of subjects of the Russian Federation
In percentage of gross domestic product
Pension Fund of the Russian Federation
In percentage of gross domestic product
Social Insurance Fund of the Russian Federation
In percentage of gross domestic product
Federal Medical Insurance Fund
In percentage of gross domestic product
Deficit (surplus)
In percentage of gross domestic product
3. Consolidated budgets of constituent entities of the Russian Federation
Revenues - just
In percentage of gross domestic product
Of these, intergovernmental transfers - total
In percentage of gross domestic product
including from the federal budget
In percentage of gross domestic product
Costs - just
In percentage of gross domestic product
Of these, intergovernmental transfers - total
In percentage of gross domestic product
including:
Pension Fund of the Russian Federation
In percentage of gross domestic product
Federal Medical Insurance Fund
In percentage of gross domestic product
Social Insurance Fund of the Russian Federation
In percentage of gross domestic product
federal budget
In percentage of gross domestic product
Deficit (surplus)
In percentage of gross domestic product
4. Pension Fund of the Russian Federation
Revenues - just
In percentage of gross domestic product
Of these, intergovernmental transfers - total
In percentage of gross domestic product
including from the federal budget
In percentage of gross domestic product
Costs
In percentage of gross domestic product
Deficit (surplus)
In percentage of gross domestic product
5. Social Insurance Fund of the Russian Federation
Revenues - just
In percentage of gross domestic product
Of these, intergovernmental transfers - total
In percentage of gross domestic product
including from the federal budget
In percentage of gross domestic product
Costs
In percentage of gross domestic product
Deficit (surplus)
In percentage of gross domestic product
6. Federal Mandatory Medical Insurance Fund
Revenues - just
In percentage of gross domestic product
Of these, intergovernmental transfers - total
In percentage of gross domestic product
including from the federal budget
In percentage of gross domestic product
Costs - just
In percentage of gross domestic product
Including intergovernmental transfers with territorial compulsory health insurance funds
In percentage of gross domestic product
Deficit (surplus)
In percentage of gross domestic product
7. Territorial Mandatory Medical Insurance Funds
Revenues
In percentage of gross domestic product
Costs
In percentage of gross domestic product
Deficit (surplus)
In percentage of gross domestic product

Appendix N 2.

to the requirements for composition and content
Budget forecast of Russian
Long-term federation
(the form)

FORECAST

the main indicators of the federal budget

(billion rubles)

Indicator	Reporting year	This year	Another year (N)	The first year of the planned period (N + 1)	The second year of the planned period (N + 2)	N + 3.	N + 4.	...
I. Basic option
Revenues - just
In percentage of gross domestic product
of them:
Oil and gas revenues
In percentage of gross domestic product
nonnephnegas revenues
In percentage of gross domestic product
Costs
In percentage of gross domestic product
Deficit (surplus)
In percentage of gross domestic product
Nonnephnegasic deficiency
In percentage of gross domestic product

In percentage of gross domestic product

In percentage of gross domestic product

In percentage of gross domestic product
II. Conservative option
Revenues - just
In percentage of gross domestic product
of them:
Oil and gas revenues
In percentage of gross domestic product
nonnephnegas revenues
In percentage of gross domestic product
Costs
In percentage of gross domestic product
Deficit (surplus)
In percentage of gross domestic product
Nonnephnegasic deficiency
In percentage of gross domestic product
Public debt at the end of the year
In percentage of gross domestic product
Reserve Fund at the end of the year
In percentage of gross domestic product
National Welfare Fund at the end of the year
In percentage of gross domestic product
III. Target
Revenues - just
In percentage of gross domestic product
of them:
Oil and gas revenues
In percentage of gross domestic product
nonnephnegas revenues
In percentage of gross domestic product
Costs
In percentage of gross domestic product
Deficit (surplus)
In percentage of gross domestic product
Nonnephnegasic deficiency
In percentage of gross domestic product
Public debt at the end of the year
In percentage of gross domestic product
Reserve Fund at the end of the year
In percentage of gross domestic product
National Welfare Fund at the end of the year
In percentage of gross domestic product

Appendix N 3.
to the requirements for the composition
and content
budget forecast
Russian Federation
For a long term
(the form)

Financial security indicators
government programs of the Russian Federation for the period of their action
(billion rubles)

Indicator	Reporting year	This year	Another year (N)	The first year of the planned period (N + 1)	The second year of the planned period (N + 2)	N + 3.	...
Federal budget expenditures - total
including:
Expenditures on the implementation of state programs of the Russian Federation - total
of them:
State Program 1.
State program 2.
...
Closed part of expenses for the implementation of state programs of the Russian Federation

As part of the expert discussion of the budget forecasting project of the Russian Federation until 2034, the feedback was sent to the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation.

Scenic conditions of the budget forecast

The draft budget forecast of the Russian Federation up to 2034 is beneficially featured by a conceptual approach to determining the role of budget policy in ensuring the socio-economic development of Russia and the high quality of analytics. At the same time, the document is largely concentrated on medium-term aspects, not taking into account the issues of the long-term development of Russia. In most developed countries, a medium-term budget forecast for 10-25 years with a sliding horizon of planning is prepared annually. In addition, once every 4-5 years is made a long-term budget forecast for 40 years or more. The main content of long-term forecasts is an assessment of challenges associated with the aging of the population.

HSE notes that in the focus of the budget forecast until 2034, it is not providing the budget for the effective performance of the functions of the state and public sector and not expenses due to current budget obligations, but the forecast of the federal budget revenues, regional budgets and the budget system as a whole, as well as budget problems Balanced. This feature has both positive and negative sides.

The budget forecast project notes that to enter acceptable economic development rates, ensuring a steady increase in the well-being of citizens in the long term, the implementation of structural reforms is critical, the implementation of which will allow in the long run to achieve economic growth at least 3.5% of GDP. However, the forecast uses only the "basic" version of the economy to 2034. HSE considers the necessary development of a scenario long-term budget forecast, which takes into account various options for economic development.

Potential height drivers

high school The economy believes that the approach of the Ministry of Finance to determine the dynamics of potential economic growth overestimates the importance of Russia's importance for Russia compared to other factors, primarily human capital, as well as the openness of the economy, the development of state and public institutions, sociocultural factors. HSE proposes to use when assessing the potential growth of the economy, the results of modern studies that take into account the features of the post-industrial stage of economic development.

In addition, the Higher School of Economics proposes to take into account the results of the forecast of the scientific and technological development of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2030, which contains a description of more than 150 global trends and related opportunities and threats, more than 80 promising innovative markets, more than 250 radical products and Services, as well as more than 1000 areas of scientific research. At the same time, a systematic meaningful coordination of budget and scientific and technological forecasts is necessary.

Revenues of the budget system

Under conditions of low oil prices corresponding to the basic scenario of the forecast, the key is the problem of replenishing budget revenues. In the long term, the significance of oil and gas revenues will decline, and the main source of budget revenues should be the increase in non-internal production and imports of internal production and imports. From this point of view, the main risk is to preserve the low-term growth rates in the long-term perspective.

HSE supports the idea of \u200b\u200braising withdrawal to the budget 50% net profit state-owned companies, but notes that the state should create effective system Control over the dynamics and the structure of the costs of these companies.

Proposal to improve the quality of administration and strengthen the fight against "gray salaries" in order to increase the collection of taxes and contributions to extra-budgetary funds from working in the shadow and seventeen corresponds to the principle of taxation of taxation. However, we need a serious program of wallable wandes, containing stages, conditions, incentives and control measures. It is important to emphasize that "welt wage will require additional costs of incentives that will motivate the output from the shade. Attempting is purely administratively, with the help of repressive measures, to motivate the legalization of income is fraught with the poverty of informally employed in the registered unemployment, which will require resources to administer unemployment, the payment of benefits and other expenses on the support programs of the unemployed. If, for example, the citizens of working age, not working in the formal sector, to make a fee in OMS and NDFL with minimal wagesThe level of registered unemployment can double.

HSE supports the orientation to increase government spending, but draws attention to the fact that the increasing efficiency is also a system of tax breaks. According to the Ministry of Finance, the loss of budget revenues from benefits is 1.7 trillion rubles. The Accounts Chamber appreciates the revenues falling from the benefits in 2014 in 5 trillion rubles. This topic was ignored in the proposed budget forecast project.

Budget system expenses

The budget sector in the next 18 years will develop in serious financial restrictions. The most difficult period of 2016-2020 will be the most difficult. The forecast provides that over the next 4 years, the costs of the budget system in comparable prices will be reduced by 6% compared with 2016, the expenses of the federal budget - by 16%. It is envisaged that in the future, in the period 2020-2034, the costs of the budget system in constant prices will begin to grow slowly. However, according to the forecast, the expenses of the federal budget in constant prices in 2034 will still be lower than 2016 levels.

As shown in the budget forecast project, Russia already in the period up to 2034 will face a reduction in the population in working age of 4.4 million people with an increase in the population's population over 5 million people. The project simply stated that the problem of population aging exists, but there are no additional need for additional need for health services, pension and social security.

It is important to reinforce the thesis on the need for budget maneuver to increase the cost of education, health, infrastructure with quantitative estimates of the possible configuration and sources of such a maneuver.

Regional budgets

In estimates of HSE, under sufficient attention in the long-term budget forecast is given to regional budgets, which lies the main load of expenditures on education, health care and infrastructure. So, according to forecast, regional budget revenues are reduced from 11.5% of GDP in 2016 to 9.9% of GDP in 2034. The reduction occurs due to the compression of its own income base (from 9.8% of GDP in 2016 to 9.2% of GDP in 2034), but in particular by reducing the volume of intergovernmental transfers from 1.8% of GDP in 2016 to 0.7% GDP in 2034. The text of the long-term budget forecast does not provide justifications for such a reduction. At the same time, it should be noted that already in the medium term regional budgets Faced a serious disadvantage of resources to increase the wages of target categories employed in the public sector in accordance with decrees of May 7, 2012. The amount of additional need for resources by 2019 is about 1 trillion rubles, of which more than half falls on regional budgets.

In particular, increasing income tax could be mitigated, which is the most stable and evenly distributed source of income regions. However, HSE does not perform a uniform increase in personal income tax, but for the introduction of moderate progression.

Health costs

The forecast rightly indicates that the preservation of the stable share of the FOMS income in GDP (2.0-2.1%) in the conditions of the established demographic trends will lead to a deterioration in accessibility medical care For the population. In a number of characteristics of such a deterioration in the first place, a reduction in the list of guaranteed medical services. Such a change in the warranties of free medical care seems unlikely and inappropriate.

If growth opportunities state financing health care will not be found, the inevitable reduction in the availability of medical care (due to the growth of the need for an aging population) is likely to appear not so much in revising the list of services provided, how much to increase the time of their expectations, the size of legal and informal payments and in reerback reduction For them low-income groups. A persistent search for reserves of state financing of this industry is needed. However, it is necessary to recognize that these reserves are far from infinite, which is why it is necessary to discuss the options for co-financing medical services to the population.

Education costs

The main observations in terms of education are associated with the underfunding of development activities (and not only functioning) of the education system. General financing parameters laid down in the draft budget for 2017-2019 do not correspond to what was planned in FTCPRO. Non-fulfillment of 2017, 30% of the volume planned in FTCPRO volumes, in 2018 - 38.3%, in 2019 - 42.4%.

The real threat is underfunding in 2017-2019 subsidies of the subjects of the Russian Federation and legal entitiesthat dramatically undermines the development of the education system in the regions. Without a change in the situation, there is a risk to preserve low quality education in many regions. The basis for anxiety gives the results of international comparative studies of Pisa (among 15-year-old schoolchildren) since 2000 to the present, the results of WORLDSKILLS championships (on working professions) and international university ratings.

Calls of the pension system

In the draft long-term budget forecast, aggravation of the challenges of the pension system due to the aging of the population. The Higher School of Economics agree that despite the high risks of the pension system's exposure to the decline in the level of pension provision is politically unacceptable, especially in terms of labor pensions. Obviously, on the forecast horizon under consideration, it will not be possible to avoid raising the retirement age for men and for women. It should also agree with the alignment of the regulatory retirement age in men and women. Calculations to HSE indicate that the nearest target reference is the regulatory retirement age in 63 years. As for increasing the retirement age up to 65 years, it requires additional discussion.

HSE supports proposals for the division of pension system components associated with pension insurance and poverty struggle among disabled population. The basic part of the pension should be allocated from the insurance, combined with compensation supplements to the subsistence minimum and be provided with regard to the need of need.

It should also be noted that in the Project of the forecast in the list of actions aimed at increasing the balance of the Pension System, measures aimed at reducing commitments to early retirement obligations are not included. Today, despite the difference of five years in the regulatory retirement age in men and women, women will be retired on the age of 53, and men in 54. According to our calculations, reasonable reform of early pensions can free up a year to 0.1% of GDP .

1. Long-term budget planning It is carried out by the formation of a budget forecast of the Russian Federation for the long-term period, the budget forecast of the subject of the Russian Federation for the long-term period, as well as the budget forecast of the municipality for the long-term period in the event that the representative body of the municipality decided to form it in accordance with the requirements of this Code.

2. Under the budget forecast for the long term is a document containing a forecast of the main characteristics of the relevant budgets (consolidated budgets) of the budget system of the Russian Federation, the indicators of financial support for state (municipal) programs for the period of their action, other indicators characterizing budgets (consolidated budgets) of the budget system Of the Russian Federation, as well as containing basic approaches to the formation of budget policy for the long-term period.

3. The budget forecast of the Russian Federation, the subject of the Russian Federation for the long term is being developed every six years for twelve or more years on the basis of the forecast of socio-economic development of the Russian Federation, the subject of the Russian Federation for the corresponding period.

The budget forecast of the municipality for the long term is developed every three years for six or more years on the basis of the forecast of the socio-economic development of the municipality for the corresponding period.

The budget forecast of the Russian Federation, the subject of the Russian Federation, the municipality for the long term can be changed, taking into account the change in the forecast of socio-economic development, respectively, of the Russian Federation, the subject of the Russian Federation, the municipality for the relevant period and adopted law (decisions) on the relevant budget without extending the period His actions.

4. The procedure for developing and approving, the period of action, as well as the requirements for the composition and maintenance of the budget forecast of the Russian Federation, the subject of the Russian Federation, the municipality for the long term is established according to the Government of the Russian Federation, the highest executive body State authority of the constituent entity of the Russian Federation, the local administration in compliance with the requirements of this Code.

5. The budget forecast project (draft change of the budget forecast) of the Russian Federation, the subject of the Russian Federation, the municipality for the long-term period (with the exception of the financial support for state (municipal) programs) is submitted to the legislative (representative) authority at the same time as a draft law (decisions) The corresponding budget.

6. The budget forecast (changes in the budget forecast) of the Russian Federation, the subject of the Russian Federation, the municipality for the long-term period is approved (approved), respectively, by the Government of the Russian Federation, the Supreme Executive Body of the State of the constituent entity of the Russian Federation, the local administration in a period not exceeding two months from the day The official publication of the law (decisions) on the relevant budget.

1. Long-term budget planning is carried out by the formation of a budget forecast of the Russian Federation for the long-term period, the budget forecast of the subject of the Russian Federation for the long-term period, as well as the budget forecasting of the municipality for the long-term period in the event that the representative body of the municipality decided to form it in accordance with Requirements of this Code.

4. The procedure for the development and approval, the period of action, as well as the requirements for the composition and maintenance of the budget forecast of the Russian Federation, the subject of the Russian Federation, the municipality for the long term is established according to the Government of the Russian Federation, the highest executive body of the state of the constituent entity of the Russian Federation, the local administration in compliance with Requirements of this Code.